***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 2.8 1.4 1.0 0.9 59.6 57.9 -0.8 0.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -1.7 0.4 0.8 0.8 58.9 56.6 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 0.3 2.9 1.0 0.8 58.5 58.0 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -6.4 -1.7 -1.7 0.9 57.6 58.3 -5.4 -4.3 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 1.0 0.0 -1.4 0.8 55.0 58.7 -1.6 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -2.7 -1.2 -3.4 0.8 56.7 59.1 -2.9 -1.6 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 59.5 57.0 -0.5 0.3 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -8.2 -5.1 -3.4 0.6 52.7 57.5 -7.8 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 2.4 0.6 -1.1 0.7 53.7 58.3 -0.8 0.6 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 2.2 0.1 -2.7 0.7 53.2 57.7 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.2 -2.0 0.8 56.6 59.3 -1.2 -0.2 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.0 -2.6 0.8 54.9 59.0 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 1.4 0.2 -2.7 1.0 58.5 60.2 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 2.7 0.8 -1.4 0.6 53.4 56.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -1.2 0.9 -0.6 0.8 56.8 57.9 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.9 -2.4 0.9 57.8 59.7 -0.7 0.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 56.4 55.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -2.9 -1.2 -3.4 0.6 53.7 56.5 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 -1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 58.6 56.6 -0.3 0.6 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -7.7 -4.2 -4.8 0.6 52.4 55.8 -5.7 -4.2 -2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.8 56.5 58.7 -0.7 0.2 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.6 56.0 55.3 -1.0 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 -1.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 56.4 56.2 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 -1.5 0.4 -1.6 0.6 54.1 57.1 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 1.2 0.1 -0.3 1.0 59.4 58.4 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -1.4 0.1 -3.0 0.7 53.6 58.8 -1.5 -0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -1.4 0.6 0.5 1.0 60.3 58.1 -0.8 0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -0.4 -1.5 0.8 56.9 57.8 -2.4 -1.3 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -4.9 -2.0 -3.8 0.6 53.3 56.4 -3.8 -2.2 -0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 -1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 59.5 57.2 -0.7 0.7 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------