***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 1.4 59.8 60.6 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 -0.4 -2.3 -0.8 1.2 55.4 60.1 -4.0 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 -2.3 -0.1 -0.2 1.5 61.7 61.7 -2.2 -0.6 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -6.1 -6.3 -2.7 1.8 61.6 62.8 -7.9 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 -0.9 -1.7 -1.7 1.9 63.6 63.7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -2.8 -4.0 1.8 59.7 64.6 -4.8 -4.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -3.9 -2.2 -0.7 1.3 56.4 60.3 -4.0 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -6.1 -7.9 -3.6 2.1 64.6 65.6 -10.5 -9.4 -7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 -0.5 -1.3 -1.6 1.9 64.0 64.7 -3.7 -1.8 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -1.0 -3.0 2.0 64.3 65.2 -3.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 -0.9 -1.1 -2.1 2.1 65.0 65.0 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 -1.4 -2.6 -2.8 2.1 63.9 65.2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -1.5 -3.1 1.9 61.0 64.7 -3.3 -2.4 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 0.1 -0.9 -1.9 1.8 61.5 64.3 -3.2 -1.5 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 1.7 62.0 63.0 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 0.1 -1.0 -2.8 2.0 62.7 64.8 -2.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -2.3 -0.9 1.2 55.0 59.7 -3.8 -2.5 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 -2.6 -2.7 -3.3 2.0 65.2 65.2 -4.9 -3.9 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 -0.2 -2.0 -0.7 1.2 56.1 60.7 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -4.3 -6.6 -4.8 1.7 64.3 63.5 -9.3 -7.2 -6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -1.7 -0.6 1.7 62.4 63.0 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 -0.6 -2.0 -0.7 1.3 56.2 60.6 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -1.9 -0.8 1.3 57.7 61.7 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -1.3 -1.8 1.9 63.7 64.5 -4.0 -2.1 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 -1.1 -1.3 -1.1 1.6 61.3 61.7 -3.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -2.2 -3.4 1.8 60.4 64.1 -3.9 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -1.5 -0.7 1.5 60.4 61.0 -4.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -1.8 -2.4 -2.4 1.8 61.4 62.9 -4.5 -2.6 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -2.7 -3.6 -3.9 2.1 66.6 65.8 -6.9 -5.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 -0.1 -2.2 -0.6 1.3 57.4 60.5 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------