***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 47.2 43.2 47.1 123.3 70.6 65.6 23.6 31.9 42.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 46.2 56.2 48.9 137.9 77.0 71.0 21.2 27.8 38.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 61.9 55.1 47.9 120.3 72.8 65.3 30.7 41.0 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 63.2 65.0 55.5 120.7 67.3 65.0 29.2 43.0 64.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 60.1 53.1 54.0 113.5 64.6 61.3 30.9 41.6 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 50.6 46.9 57.5 116.3 68.2 61.8 22.9 34.1 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 41.3 47.0 48.7 138.9 76.6 71.3 18.9 26.8 33.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 72.7 77.6 60.4 115.7 64.6 61.6 54.7 65.5 79.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 48.1 45.2 54.6 113.6 68.6 62.1 23.7 36.6 44.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 55.8 59.4 59.5 112.9 66.5 61.0 30.4 43.3 59.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 45.2 39.5 50.9 113.1 61.4 60.6 26.0 33.2 42.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 41.0 43.0 51.5 115.8 64.1 61.5 33.6 38.9 44.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 55.1 50.0 52.2 112.0 65.2 59.8 29.4 40.4 50.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 68.4 71.9 60.2 117.4 73.7 65.0 43.8 54.3 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 55.6 50.5 51.7 122.5 70.0 65.5 18.4 37.9 45.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 40.2 44.8 50.2 112.5 64.2 60.1 28.1 36.5 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 44.3 57.3 52.5 154.9 84.8 76.1 21.3 25.7 41.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 55.1 54.0 66.2 113.5 69.1 62.3 31.0 39.4 52.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 51.8 58.9 48.8 132.6 76.0 69.7 25.1 36.6 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 63.6 61.4 84.7 121.9 69.5 65.8 30.4 45.6 53.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 55.0 58.9 50.4 115.9 69.6 63.4 26.9 38.5 52.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 43.2 57.0 54.2 153.2 83.9 75.6 23.4 33.3 42.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 40.6 44.0 49.7 122.6 75.8 67.0 26.4 33.1 40.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 60.5 63.8 57.6 113.9 71.4 62.8 34.4 50.2 59.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 42.7 58.9 54.6 116.9 64.1 62.1 30.3 37.4 61.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 43.9 44.8 54.9 119.6 69.4 63.2 29.3 35.1 43.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 34.7 52.3 51.9 121.1 66.6 64.0 21.4 30.6 52.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 47.0 46.0 52.2 119.0 67.6 64.0 25.7 34.0 43.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 85.2 85.4 72.5 115.9 68.7 63.8 55.9 65.6 84.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 48.9 59.1 47.5 130.8 74.1 68.5 23.0 30.5 44.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------