***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.9 10.2 116.7 62.0 52.5 3.6 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.4 11.1 135.7 72.9 55.4 5.3 9.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.0 15.2 10.9 118.9 64.0 53.1 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 15.2 11.6 111.3 65.7 54.0 5.4 8.7 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.3 14.5 11.3 102.8 61.1 51.5 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 11.5 12.6 111.6 64.4 55.7 3.2 5.2 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.7 11.0 133.3 72.3 55.4 2.6 7.4 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.6 24.4 11.9 99.2 60.7 51.0 12.8 17.8 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.4 11.3 98.2 57.8 49.5 4.3 6.7 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.0 12.2 96.8 59.2 49.8 8.4 12.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.0 10.3 101.7 64.4 51.6 3.0 5.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.1 10.1 103.5 63.8 52.2 3.1 6.9 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.4 11.0 108.5 61.2 54.2 3.9 7.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.7 23.5 13.9 109.5 60.3 50.6 10.0 15.6 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 20.4 11.3 119.0 74.0 56.2 1.1 6.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.5 10.4 107.7 64.5 53.6 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.9 11.4 142.8 74.4 56.3 2.9 6.4 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 13.9 97.1 60.4 49.1 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 17.3 11.2 132.8 71.7 54.5 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.9 15.7 96.9 60.1 50.2 4.3 9.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.2 10.6 104.1 58.9 50.4 3.0 7.4 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.2 11.3 140.8 74.1 56.5 5.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.8 11.6 123.3 66.6 52.3 3.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.9 13.0 105.5 61.2 50.1 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.4 12.0 113.0 58.7 53.4 2.3 9.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.4 11.0 109.4 64.4 54.2 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.1 11.7 118.9 62.4 54.3 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.4 13.6 11.3 114.4 70.3 55.2 2.1 4.3 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.8 14.7 96.1 57.4 48.5 12.1 15.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 18.8 10.9 130.8 71.1 54.9 4.2 7.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------