***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.8 13.7 10.8 119.9 69.1 57.4 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.1 11.5 134.4 71.2 59.8 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.5 12.2 11.4 117.3 67.4 57.2 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.0 10.9 12.2 104.3 63.4 54.0 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.4 13.1 108.2 63.3 55.3 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.7 14.1 102.2 57.4 52.1 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.1 10.1 11.3 133.5 73.6 59.3 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.8 17.9 15.3 108.6 63.4 54.9 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.4 13.7 112.4 65.1 57.2 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 12.7 15.3 111.3 64.3 56.6 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.0 12.6 103.5 59.8 53.7 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.3 12.7 104.3 59.2 53.2 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.5 13.0 102.5 55.4 52.0 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 15.8 12.8 15.1 122.6 67.6 59.2 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.3 10.7 97.1 61.9 52.4 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.1 12.1 99.2 56.8 52.0 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.2 10.6 11.7 141.1 73.0 60.6 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.7 11.3 17.0 114.0 65.3 57.9 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 8.9 10.3 11.7 132.2 70.5 59.5 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 10.4 20.1 110.4 65.4 56.1 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.6 12.1 112.9 65.9 56.4 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.3 11.3 12.5 145.3 73.7 61.5 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.6 12.2 126.7 69.0 58.7 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 13.6 9.2 14.6 116.7 67.0 58.5 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 13.5 12.7 114.7 65.3 56.6 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 9.8 12.9 103.6 58.4 52.6 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.1 12.1 121.1 67.1 57.8 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 9.7 11.5 97.8 61.0 52.5 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 24.2 18.3 116.0 67.6 58.8 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 11.3 11.0 11.2 128.4 70.7 58.7 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------