***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.3 11.9 11.8 111.3 64.9 57.8 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 9.0 12.8 12.4 127.6 71.2 63.7 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.8 12.2 114.1 66.1 59.4 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.9 14.8 125.2 64.9 61.4 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.7 9.9 14.9 122.8 62.1 59.3 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.2 16.2 123.0 68.2 59.7 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 5.8 7.0 12.2 124.7 68.7 62.9 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.4 22.3 17.3 131.3 68.4 59.9 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.6 15.3 123.5 64.6 59.1 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.9 14.3 17.1 129.7 68.7 60.1 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.1 14.3 126.0 64.7 58.8 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 15.8 14.6 128.5 67.7 59.6 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.6 15.0 122.7 65.8 59.3 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.9 12.5 16.4 124.2 68.8 61.5 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 11.4 14.4 126.3 68.4 60.7 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.1 14.1 122.7 64.8 58.7 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 8.0 9.5 13.5 145.2 74.1 65.4 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.8 17.3 19.0 131.1 73.1 62.1 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 8.8 9.7 12.4 123.8 70.9 62.6 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.7 18.1 23.1 132.0 71.4 61.7 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.2 13.3 115.7 63.4 57.8 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 9.5 10.1 13.9 146.0 73.3 64.7 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.7 10.3 12.5 116.4 68.3 60.3 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.3 11.2 16.0 123.7 68.6 60.8 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.9 14.1 110.7 64.7 57.6 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.5 14.9 126.1 67.7 60.6 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.6 9.3 13.2 108.5 62.8 57.2 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.6 9.5 14.7 128.8 66.5 61.0 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 27.3 20.5 130.0 71.5 62.4 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.0 9.3 11.9 119.0 68.9 62.0 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------