***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 12.5 16.0 14.3 145.3 75.4 68.4 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 13.8 18.8 13.8 154.7 78.3 70.3 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 8.8 16.2 13.4 131.1 74.1 65.7 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.4 22.9 16.8 140.7 73.3 67.4 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.5 16.9 14.8 119.2 67.1 60.5 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 11.8 13.5 14.6 130.7 71.5 64.4 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 10.0 12.2 14.2 165.8 79.5 72.3 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 24.0 23.9 15.9 123.3 70.0 64.3 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.5 13.1 14.3 119.3 67.6 60.8 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.8 14.1 14.9 113.5 66.2 60.1 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 13.9 12.3 13.7 120.7 70.1 62.0 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 14.4 13.4 14.1 126.3 69.2 64.8 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.3 13.5 13.3 113.9 65.1 58.8 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.3 18.4 14.8 113.4 64.8 59.3 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.7 18.3 15.3 148.3 79.3 70.1 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.0 15.8 13.6 120.2 69.3 61.3 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 12.5 16.7 15.9 191.0 84.0 75.4 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 9.5 13.3 16.3 111.9 65.0 59.5 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.8 19.3 13.5 141.8 75.7 68.0 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 13.9 15.6 25.9 147.6 76.2 71.7 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.0 15.9 14.4 129.9 70.6 64.3 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 12.6 16.7 16.5 179.0 83.5 74.7 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.1 16.9 13.3 124.7 69.9 63.9 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.3 15.5 13.9 109.7 65.2 58.3 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 21.5 21.3 15.8 128.8 71.3 63.1 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 8.8 7.7 16.1 139.0 72.4 67.7 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 18.4 24.7 14.9 137.3 73.2 65.8 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.9 19.1 14.7 135.6 75.0 66.7 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 18.0 24.5 18.9 121.3 69.1 62.9 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 9.7 12.5 13.5 145.9 76.8 69.0 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------