***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 10.6 13.9 10.1 3.8 93.8 89.3 5.8 7.7 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 10.6 12.7 10.1 3.9 93.1 89.1 5.2 6.7 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 10.8 14.8 10.3 3.8 93.3 88.7 6.3 7.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 3.5 6.0 7.8 3.5 89.3 84.9 -0.4 0.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 11.0 13.8 8.6 3.7 91.2 87.4 6.1 7.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 10.3 11.4 6.8 3.2 88.6 85.3 5.7 6.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 10.2 12.5 10.0 3.9 93.4 89.3 4.7 6.2 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 0.6 2.3 7.1 3.1 86.8 84.4 -2.7 -1.4 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 11.0 14.5 9.3 3.6 91.7 87.6 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 11.1 13.3 8.1 3.4 88.8 86.0 6.4 7.7 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 11.1 13.5 8.4 3.6 90.0 87.3 6.7 7.8 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 10.5 12.3 7.9 3.2 87.6 85.4 6.1 7.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.2 13.1 7.6 3.3 88.7 86.1 6.8 7.6 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 11.4 14.1 9.5 3.6 88.5 86.4 6.3 8.3 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 10.7 11.9 8.2 3.5 87.2 83.5 4.6 6.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 11.9 14.0 8.0 3.5 89.4 86.9 7.0 8.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 10.3 11.7 9.8 3.8 91.4 88.1 4.4 6.1 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 10.5 13.2 7.6 3.2 86.8 84.3 5.7 7.0 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 10.7 13.6 10.3 3.9 93.2 89.1 5.0 6.6 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 6.3 7.4 5.1 2.5 81.2 80.4 2.1 3.3 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 10.9 14.6 9.9 3.7 92.5 88.3 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 11.1 12.9 10.0 3.8 91.9 88.1 5.1 6.5 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 11.0 13.6 10.4 3.8 91.9 88.6 5.7 7.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 10.9 13.8 9.3 3.5 89.7 86.4 6.6 7.8 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 10.3 13.5 8.6 3.7 92.9 88.1 5.1 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 10.6 12.1 6.9 2.9 86.5 84.9 5.9 7.4 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 10.6 14.2 9.4 3.8 93.8 89.3 6.2 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 11.6 13.5 8.1 3.6 88.3 84.3 4.7 7.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 6.0 8.5 6.6 3.0 84.5 83.0 1.9 3.2 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 10.3 13.1 10.3 3.9 93.7 89.4 5.3 6.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------