***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.6 10.4 2.1 70.8 65.6 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.9 13.0 10.3 2.0 68.0 64.6 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.1 14.1 10.5 2.1 70.7 65.3 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 6.2 6.0 8.2 2.0 68.2 65.3 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.6 8.7 2.1 71.3 65.2 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.8 14.0 7.1 2.1 73.7 65.8 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.6 10.2 2.0 67.7 65.0 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.7 3.2 7.3 1.9 71.3 65.1 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.8 9.3 2.1 72.5 64.9 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.5 8.2 2.0 71.6 64.9 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.9 8.4 2.0 73.6 65.5 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.4 8.1 2.0 72.4 65.7 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.7 14.6 7.7 2.0 73.9 65.8 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.4 13.8 9.6 2.0 67.7 64.5 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.9 11.6 8.5 2.0 67.8 65.2 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.8 15.0 8.1 2.0 71.6 65.5 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.1 12.1 10.0 1.9 65.6 64.0 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.7 13.7 7.7 2.0 70.4 64.4 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 13.0 10.6 2.0 69.0 64.8 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 8.4 5.3 1.7 69.5 63.2 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.6 14.4 10.0 2.1 72.7 64.8 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.5 12.9 10.2 1.9 67.4 63.9 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 12.8 13.9 10.6 2.1 69.6 65.1 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.5 14.4 9.4 2.1 70.3 64.7 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.7 13.2 8.7 2.1 70.4 65.8 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.3 14.2 7.3 1.9 72.6 65.8 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.6 9.6 2.1 70.6 65.9 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.8 13.5 8.4 2.0 68.4 65.0 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 8.5 9.5 6.8 1.9 69.5 64.1 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.0 10.5 2.0 68.8 65.0 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------