***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 11.8 13.7 9.8 3.2 78.4 73.2 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 10.3 11.4 9.9 3.3 75.8 73.9 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 11.7 13.3 10.0 3.2 75.2 72.2 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.5 7.4 7.8 3.3 79.0 72.0 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 11.2 13.9 8.1 3.0 76.1 70.2 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.3 11.5 6.4 2.8 74.2 70.2 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 9.6 11.1 9.7 3.2 78.1 74.0 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.9 1.4 6.7 2.5 72.2 66.8 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.3 13.4 8.8 2.9 74.0 69.3 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 11.2 12.2 7.6 2.7 72.4 67.3 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 11.3 13.6 7.8 2.8 76.9 69.3 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.5 11.5 7.5 2.7 74.1 68.4 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.7 12.2 7.0 2.7 73.8 69.4 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 12.5 13.6 9.1 2.9 70.9 69.1 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.5 13.2 8.1 3.4 78.7 73.2 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.9 13.6 7.5 2.9 76.9 70.3 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 9.4 10.0 9.6 3.2 74.5 73.3 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 10.5 10.4 7.2 2.5 70.7 66.0 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 10.8 11.9 10.1 3.3 74.2 73.4 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 3.8 7.1 4.8 2.1 68.7 64.1 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 11.4 13.6 9.4 3.1 75.6 71.0 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 10.4 11.0 9.9 3.2 72.0 73.2 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.9 10.2 3.2 73.3 72.1 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.6 12.4 8.8 2.8 72.2 68.3 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 10.4 12.6 8.2 3.2 79.1 72.7 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 10.2 11.4 6.7 2.6 76.0 69.8 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 11.2 13.0 9.0 3.2 78.8 73.3 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.0 14.2 8.1 3.3 78.7 72.2 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.3 7.4 6.2 2.3 67.3 65.2 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 10.2 11.7 10.0 3.3 76.7 73.9 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------