***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 8.7 10.7 9.5 3.9 82.4 78.9 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 8.5 9.6 9.4 3.9 79.0 78.0 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 8.9 10.4 9.6 3.8 78.8 76.8 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 2.6 4.6 7.6 3.8 83.8 78.1 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 8.9 11.3 8.0 3.6 80.4 76.4 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 8.4 9.8 6.3 3.0 75.4 74.1 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 8.0 9.3 9.3 4.0 79.7 79.0 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -0.3 0.4 6.5 2.8 73.9 72.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.2 11.1 8.6 3.5 77.2 75.1 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 8.7 10.0 7.4 3.1 74.8 73.1 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 9.3 11.0 7.7 3.4 77.9 75.2 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 8.9 10.4 7.3 3.0 76.9 73.8 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 9.8 11.2 6.9 3.0 77.9 74.5 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.8 9.6 8.5 3.3 74.4 72.5 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 8.1 9.6 7.7 3.7 81.5 78.6 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 10.0 11.8 7.4 3.3 78.6 75.2 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 7.9 8.9 9.0 3.8 77.4 77.5 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 7.9 8.9 6.8 2.9 72.1 70.8 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 8.4 9.7 9.6 3.9 77.9 77.0 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 4.9 4.4 4.4 2.2 69.0 67.9 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 9.4 11.3 9.2 3.7 79.5 76.3 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 8.3 9.1 9.2 3.7 75.9 76.0 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 8.5 9.8 9.6 3.7 75.4 75.6 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 8.9 9.3 8.4 3.3 74.2 72.7 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 8.2 9.7 8.0 3.8 81.9 79.1 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 9.6 11.4 6.6 2.9 80.6 75.6 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 8.8 11.0 8.7 3.9 82.5 79.6 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.7 10.0 7.7 3.7 82.1 77.2 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.8 5.4 5.9 2.6 70.6 69.3 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 8.2 10.0 9.6 3.9 79.7 78.4 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------