***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.6 10.8 6.0 92.8 91.8 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 9.9 13.2 10.9 6.4 93.9 92.7 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 11.8 14.1 11.2 6.1 92.3 91.6 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 4.6 6.3 7.4 5.1 82.8 82.3 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 11.6 14.0 9.5 5.9 91.2 89.9 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 10.1 12.0 7.5 5.1 87.7 87.1 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 9.6 12.6 10.7 6.4 93.8 93.1 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.1 2.2 7.9 5.1 85.9 86.8 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 12.3 14.7 10.6 6.1 92.6 91.0 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.5 14.1 9.3 5.8 90.5 89.6 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 11.7 14.3 9.6 6.0 91.0 90.4 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.8 8.5 5.2 86.9 87.5 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.8 13.5 8.9 5.3 88.6 89.4 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 12.2 14.5 10.8 6.1 93.7 90.7 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 9.4 10.6 8.6 4.8 81.0 79.2 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.6 14.6 9.2 5.9 90.6 90.3 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 9.5 12.4 10.5 6.3 93.4 92.4 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.8 8.7 5.4 90.0 89.1 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 9.7 13.7 11.1 6.4 94.2 92.6 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.8 7.0 5.8 4.2 82.8 83.6 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 12.6 14.1 11.0 6.1 92.3 90.9 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.4 10.7 6.3 93.9 92.3 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.1 14.0 11.2 6.3 94.6 92.5 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.3 10.6 5.9 92.7 91.1 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 10.8 12.8 9.4 5.6 91.5 89.6 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 10.2 11.1 6.9 4.2 82.4 83.6 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 11.2 13.3 10.2 5.9 93.2 92.0 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 11.5 13.3 8.3 5.2 82.0 81.6 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 6.4 8.8 7.6 5.0 87.9 88.0 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.8 13.3 11.0 6.4 93.6 92.6 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------