***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 2.1 3.4 1.8 3.4 86.6 79.2 -2.1 0.3 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 0.7 2.1 1.5 3.3 86.3 78.9 -3.0 -1.3 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 3.5 4.9 1.4 3.3 84.6 79.2 -0.8 0.7 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 -1.7 0.0 -0.9 3.8 86.2 80.5 -7.0 -5.9 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 0.1 0.8 -1.0 3.6 81.8 77.6 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.6 -3.3 3.2 69.7 72.7 -3.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 0.9 3.2 1.6 3.4 86.3 79.2 -2.9 -0.9 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -5.1 -4.2 -3.1 3.3 72.9 72.8 -10.3 -7.9 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 1.2 1.7 -0.4 3.4 79.8 76.2 -2.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 0.7 1.1 -2.1 3.5 75.4 74.4 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 0.7 1.1 -1.7 3.5 78.5 75.5 -2.0 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -0.3 -0.2 -2.1 3.3 74.3 73.8 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 0.4 0.2 -2.5 3.1 71.9 73.0 -1.9 -0.4 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 1.3 2.4 -0.5 3.2 79.2 74.6 -1.7 -1.2 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 0.9 2.5 -0.2 3.6 87.2 81.2 -1.8 -0.6 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 1.5 1.8 -2.0 3.5 77.8 75.3 -1.5 0.3 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 1.4 2.9 1.6 3.3 84.4 77.8 -2.5 -1.2 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 -1.7 -1.2 -2.8 3.3 72.4 72.2 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 0.9 2.7 1.4 3.2 84.6 78.5 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 -3.3 -2.7 -5.0 2.8 67.3 67.6 -9.0 -4.8 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 0.9 1.8 0.8 3.4 84.0 78.0 -2.4 -0.1 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 0.8 1.6 1.5 3.2 82.6 77.3 -2.4 -1.5 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 0.1 1.1 1.0 3.1 81.8 77.5 -3.0 -1.6 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 0.3 1.1 -0.8 3.3 78.0 75.0 -2.7 -1.5 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 0.9 1.7 0.1 3.7 88.0 80.9 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 0.8 0.8 -2.4 2.9 70.4 71.4 -2.0 -0.8 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 1.4 3.6 1.0 3.7 87.6 79.9 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 -0.6 0.5 -0.7 3.8 85.5 80.1 -4.4 -1.7 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 -2.0 -1.2 -3.7 3.0 68.8 69.8 -6.1 -4.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 1.5 3.2 1.6 3.3 86.1 79.4 -2.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------