***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 1.0 2.7 2.7 4.4 94.3 88.6 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 0.6 2.6 2.2 4.2 93.8 87.5 -4.0 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 2.8 5.1 2.3 4.1 96.2 89.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 -3.8 -0.5 0.1 4.6 98.3 91.0 -7.9 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 -0.4 1.8 0.2 4.6 96.0 90.4 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 -0.9 0.7 -1.8 4.3 92.3 87.5 -4.8 -4.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 0.5 2.7 2.3 4.3 93.2 87.1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 -5.3 -3.9 -1.5 4.5 89.5 86.6 -10.5 -9.4 -7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 0.1 3.1 0.9 4.5 95.8 89.9 -3.7 -1.8 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 -0.5 2.4 -0.6 4.6 92.8 88.0 -3.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 -0.6 2.3 -0.3 4.6 94.3 89.3 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 -0.8 0.7 -0.6 4.4 91.7 88.0 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 -0.4 1.2 -0.9 4.3 91.5 88.1 -3.3 -2.4 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 0.8 2.4 0.7 4.2 93.8 87.5 -3.2 -1.5 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 0.1 4.0 0.7 4.3 98.0 90.7 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 0.8 3.0 -0.6 4.5 94.2 89.4 -2.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 -0.2 2.1 2.0 4.1 89.6 85.1 -3.8 -2.5 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 -2.2 -0.5 -1.2 4.5 90.6 86.1 -4.9 -3.9 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 0.7 2.5 2.2 4.1 94.8 88.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 -4.0 -2.9 -3.4 4.0 83.8 80.9 -9.3 -7.2 -6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 0.0 3.0 1.9 4.4 95.6 89.6 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 0.1 1.9 2.0 4.0 91.7 85.8 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 0.1 1.9 2.0 4.0 96.1 88.8 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 0.0 2.1 0.5 4.3 94.0 87.7 -4.0 -2.1 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 -0.5 2.4 1.2 4.7 97.4 91.2 -3.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 0.0 1.6 -0.9 4.1 91.2 87.3 -3.9 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 0.3 3.7 2.0 4.6 94.7 89.5 -4.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 -1.5 2.1 0.2 4.4 97.2 90.0 -4.5 -2.6 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 -1.9 -0.3 -2.0 4.4 87.1 83.8 -6.9 -5.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 0.9 3.2 2.4 4.2 95.0 88.2 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------