***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.7 3.1 4.1 6.9 96.4 95.2 -2.8 -1.2 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.5 3.2 3.6 6.8 97.1 95.6 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 3.3 5.4 3.7 6.4 95.7 94.9 -1.9 -0.3 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 -1.2 0.1 0.1 5.6 88.0 88.1 -8.3 -7.8 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.0 1.6 6.7 94.4 93.8 -3.5 -2.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.2 1.2 -1.1 6.1 95.0 93.8 -5.1 -3.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.5 3.4 3.8 7.2 96.6 95.8 -3.2 -2.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -4.8 -3.0 -0.1 6.5 97.0 95.3 -9.5 -7.6 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.4 2.2 1.6 6.3 96.4 94.2 -3.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.1 3.6 0.7 6.5 96.7 94.8 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.8 0.8 6.4 95.0 93.6 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.0 1.4 0.5 6.4 95.9 95.0 -4.3 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.4 1.7 -0.2 6.2 92.9 92.6 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.3 1.8 6.2 95.7 94.2 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.5 1.5 0.7 4.9 87.7 86.1 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 0.9 2.8 0.2 6.3 94.7 93.1 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.7 3.4 6.8 96.7 95.3 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -1.8 0.3 0.3 6.6 97.0 95.2 -4.7 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.8 3.4 6.4 96.7 95.4 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -4.3 0.0 -0.8 7.1 98.6 96.5 -8.7 -7.2 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.8 3.2 6.5 94.6 94.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.8 3.4 6.6 96.6 95.4 -3.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.6 1.9 2.9 6.1 96.4 95.2 -3.3 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 0.0 2.4 1.7 6.2 95.9 94.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.4 2.9 6.7 94.4 94.3 -3.0 -2.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.1 1.5 -0.3 6.1 92.3 93.2 -3.5 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.7 4.5 3.7 7.1 96.1 95.1 -3.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 -0.6 0.1 0.2 5.3 87.1 86.0 -4.7 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 -1.1 1.5 -0.3 6.9 98.4 95.5 -6.5 -4.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.3 3.6 3.8 6.8 96.7 95.5 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------