***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 33.7 40.7 47.2 116.4 66.7 57.0 23.9 27.9 40.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 33.5 38.0 40.9 114.8 65.4 55.7 24.4 27.8 38.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 45.0 47.5 49.2 121.5 69.1 59.3 30.3 39.3 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 65.1 68.8 60.6 133.3 75.2 67.9 29.2 46.6 61.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 44.0 52.3 53.9 116.2 65.9 60.3 31.0 40.5 52.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 39.4 45.5 51.6 109.5 63.1 58.0 23.2 35.3 46.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 31.8 30.2 38.8 110.8 60.9 53.6 20.6 27.0 33.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 71.4 82.9 57.4 115.1 65.8 60.9 57.2 66.3 83.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 39.4 42.9 55.7 117.4 66.6 59.9 27.5 35.5 42.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 45.3 49.6 59.2 116.3 65.9 60.6 35.6 41.3 49.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 37.1 42.3 53.6 116.7 66.1 61.2 28.7 33.0 42.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 41.7 45.2 52.3 116.0 66.1 61.1 33.6 37.6 45.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 46.9 50.6 54.7 110.7 63.2 58.3 29.4 43.2 51.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 54.9 64.8 61.7 117.7 68.5 57.7 43.6 49.8 64.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 56.1 67.0 63.2 153.5 80.3 73.0 24.5 38.3 45.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 38.9 45.5 52.4 113.8 64.5 59.8 29.2 35.5 46.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 31.7 38.1 37.6 108.4 58.5 53.5 22.8 26.3 41.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 41.2 50.0 62.5 115.8 66.2 59.9 30.7 38.1 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 40.6 40.8 43.2 116.0 66.6 56.1 25.9 36.8 40.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 50.8 59.6 71.9 111.6 64.5 58.8 30.4 45.5 59.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 43.0 56.3 52.6 118.6 68.1 59.4 26.6 37.5 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 37.1 40.3 40.7 109.1 58.5 53.6 26.6 33.0 43.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 36.4 38.6 47.5 116.9 67.4 56.4 26.0 34.3 37.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 50.7 58.3 58.7 120.1 69.3 60.1 40.3 48.0 55.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 44.7 58.7 54.0 115.7 64.9 58.0 28.6 38.1 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 41.6 41.9 53.4 115.1 66.7 60.6 30.1 34.8 41.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 37.7 48.0 48.9 113.7 63.5 56.4 23.2 30.9 52.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 49.0 55.7 59.6 139.2 75.7 69.5 28.7 34.2 43.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 75.1 81.2 66.0 114.6 65.4 59.5 57.1 71.8 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 37.0 41.2 42.8 116.6 67.0 56.3 23.4 30.8 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------