***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.0 11.2 111.1 61.0 50.1 2.1 6.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.8 10.1 109.0 62.6 50.6 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.7 11.1 111.2 61.5 49.8 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.1 14.1 10.4 91.7 57.5 46.0 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.3 11.3 98.4 57.9 47.0 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.3 11.3 88.6 53.8 45.8 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.5 9.8 106.5 62.3 49.9 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.5 17.3 12.3 95.1 55.3 47.8 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.1 12.4 12.3 103.2 59.5 47.9 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.5 10.8 13.0 99.9 57.5 47.7 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.4 10.8 95.4 57.5 47.6 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.3 10.8 92.7 55.5 47.9 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.0 7.8 11.8 92.1 54.3 47.3 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.6 21.9 13.4 103.1 58.4 46.9 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 15.3 9.6 91.0 61.1 47.4 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.8 10.8 91.4 54.3 46.8 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.7 10.3 110.9 63.8 51.2 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 10.6 14.1 101.7 58.2 47.9 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.4 10.3 109.0 62.6 49.9 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 9.6 16.7 97.2 55.1 48.8 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.9 13.0 11.8 107.7 61.5 48.7 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.3 10.6 108.0 62.3 50.2 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.3 10.9 109.2 63.5 48.8 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.9 11.7 12.8 105.6 60.3 47.8 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.0 13.5 12.5 107.7 62.6 48.5 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.5 9.9 11.3 91.3 59.4 47.1 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.6 11.9 110.1 60.9 49.7 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.2 9.5 86.5 56.5 46.1 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 16.3 15.0 100.6 57.0 48.2 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.8 10.1 107.2 62.1 50.1 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------