***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.7 11.9 107.6 64.1 51.6 3.8 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.4 10.1 109.1 63.0 51.8 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.2 11.6 104.4 62.8 50.7 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.0 12.1 96.4 59.0 50.7 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.5 11.8 89.0 55.0 47.7 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.3 11.9 86.8 52.4 46.2 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.1 7.7 9.7 106.2 64.0 51.7 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 11.7 11.4 83.3 49.6 45.0 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.5 5.0 12.7 90.9 55.6 47.3 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.3 12.6 86.8 51.9 45.9 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.3 7.9 10.7 84.2 52.6 46.1 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.5 8.3 10.4 84.5 52.0 45.3 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.4 11.8 85.9 53.4 45.6 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.7 13.6 94.8 55.2 47.3 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.2 4.8 11.6 98.6 63.0 51.4 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.0 11.0 84.0 52.8 46.0 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.2 6.6 9.0 101.5 61.7 50.2 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.5 13.6 89.1 53.7 46.3 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.2 9.0 10.4 107.7 63.1 51.1 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.5 9.1 14.9 82.5 50.8 45.3 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.7 12.4 97.5 60.0 49.8 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.8 9.3 98.7 59.8 48.6 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.4 11.0 102.7 61.7 49.7 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.1 13.2 95.9 57.9 48.3 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.8 13.1 103.9 60.9 51.1 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.5 11.5 90.7 54.2 46.7 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.5 12.3 105.9 62.4 51.6 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.4 11.3 92.5 58.9 50.5 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 13.0 13.9 86.1 51.2 45.4 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.6 10.6 109.0 64.6 51.8 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------