***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.3 9.9 85.3 51.8 42.4 2.0 5.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.2 4.2 9.7 98.7 58.9 46.2 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.1 4.8 10.0 86.3 52.7 43.5 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.8 13.4 14.9 116.6 66.6 55.6 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.7 8.8 11.0 85.0 51.5 44.8 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.7 6.2 10.5 85.6 49.7 44.3 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.6 9.1 98.0 57.7 44.4 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 13.4 19.3 12.4 91.9 55.7 45.9 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.2 10.6 80.1 49.4 41.8 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.3 11.4 11.4 83.0 51.0 43.2 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.0 10.7 81.9 50.3 42.8 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.6 11.3 89.0 54.0 44.7 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.2 8.4 9.9 74.7 44.0 39.4 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.6 8.8 12.5 84.1 49.0 42.8 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 13.1 17.1 16.6 143.0 76.1 62.2 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.0 79.7 47.2 41.9 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.4 3.7 9.0 98.0 57.8 45.6 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.5 10.6 12.5 86.7 52.6 43.5 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.4 6.4 10.1 95.0 57.6 45.7 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 13.7 17.0 98.3 57.2 45.9 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.2 81.7 50.4 42.5 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.8 10.1 98.0 57.1 46.5 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.8 10.6 89.3 54.8 45.2 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.0 11.7 84.1 49.8 43.2 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.0 11.5 86.5 52.3 43.3 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.0 12.0 95.0 53.7 47.3 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.0 10.2 84.0 51.8 41.6 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 11.3 14.9 127.1 69.6 58.0 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 10.7 17.4 14.4 91.7 53.9 44.0 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.2 6.6 9.8 95.9 57.6 45.2 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------