***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 7.8 13.5 14.2 182.3 81.4 72.2 1.6 3.7 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 11.0 14.5 11.0 151.1 77.3 64.9 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 9.5 26.2 16.5 213.0 87.5 76.3 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 21.0 27.3 23.2 263.2 92.5 86.9 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 15.9 24.5 19.8 227.5 90.1 82.2 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 10.8 14.1 18.0 212.5 85.3 79.4 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.3 9.1 10.1 138.9 72.9 61.8 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 22.0 34.3 21.3 216.4 88.3 83.0 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 12.0 29.4 20.1 242.7 91.4 83.5 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 15.1 26.8 22.3 229.8 90.2 83.8 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 13.8 27.9 21.3 244.6 91.5 84.3 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 14.9 28.8 19.9 234.9 89.7 83.8 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 13.1 29.4 21.2 220.6 90.5 81.7 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 18.6 28.0 22.3 216.9 89.4 79.8 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 14.7 38.1 25.3 354.4 93.9 90.4 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 11.2 19.3 20.7 238.1 90.3 83.1 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.8 12.0 9.2 127.0 70.8 57.1 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 15.3 25.0 22.2 216.5 87.4 82.0 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 12.5 17.8 12.4 165.6 80.0 68.4 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 10.7 16.9 23.3 191.6 85.2 80.5 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 12.3 21.5 18.2 224.0 88.9 79.6 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.8 10.7 137.4 72.4 60.3 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 13.2 22.2 15.0 186.5 83.2 73.1 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 19.3 23.5 21.1 230.5 89.4 81.6 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.8 19.7 16.9 184.6 83.4 74.4 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 11.2 15.0 18.6 213.0 85.1 79.9 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.1 19.3 14.4 172.9 79.8 71.6 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 16.9 37.6 23.8 304.1 93.0 88.6 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 24.3 34.6 22.8 209.2 87.1 81.9 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.1 13.4 12.3 168.2 80.0 69.0 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------