***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.3 5.0 5.2 -2.3 22.1 27.1 5.8 7.5 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.9 3.1 5.3 -2.3 20.4 27.0 5.0 6.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 4.5 4.1 5.5 -2.5 21.6 26.7 5.8 7.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 -2.5 -3.0 1.1 -3.8 15.9 19.3 -0.3 0.9 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.9 4.6 3.5 -2.7 22.3 26.0 6.0 7.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.6 4.6 2.8 -1.9 26.9 31.7 5.5 6.6 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.9 3.7 5.3 -2.1 21.1 27.7 4.6 6.5 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -3.0 3.3 -2.0 27.6 31.1 -2.6 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 5.1 5.7 4.5 -2.5 24.8 28.1 6.5 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.9 3.7 -2.3 26.2 29.5 6.6 7.3 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.1 3.8 -2.6 23.7 27.3 6.4 7.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.0 5.4 3.8 -2.0 27.4 30.6 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.5 6.3 4.0 -1.6 29.6 33.5 6.5 8.0 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.0 5.0 4.8 -2.5 24.9 28.9 6.4 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 2.8 1.9 2.0 -3.9 15.7 19.4 4.5 6.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 5.6 5.5 3.4 -2.4 24.2 28.3 6.9 8.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.8 3.4 5.2 -2.2 21.6 27.8 4.4 6.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.7 5.5 3.8 -1.9 28.1 32.5 5.7 6.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.6 3.1 5.4 -2.4 21.6 27.3 4.9 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.8 2.7 2.7 -1.0 36.0 39.7 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.9 5.1 5.1 -2.6 23.5 26.7 6.1 7.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.1 3.5 5.3 -2.3 22.1 28.0 4.8 6.5 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 4.0 4.7 5.6 -2.3 23.7 28.3 5.3 7.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.2 5.6 4.8 -2.4 25.1 29.0 6.3 7.7 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.3 3.7 3.6 -2.6 22.1 26.3 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.7 6.1 3.9 -1.0 32.1 37.9 6.2 7.3 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.5 5.2 4.9 -2.1 23.1 28.7 5.9 7.2 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 3.3 2.6 1.5 -3.9 16.0 19.3 4.9 6.9 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.6 1.9 3.6 -1.5 32.2 35.7 2.1 3.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.6 3.6 5.3 -2.3 20.9 27.0 4.9 6.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------