***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.3 9.3 0.3 49.5 52.5 7.4 11.4 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.5 9.1 0.2 47.7 51.7 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.0 9.7 0.3 48.9 52.7 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.5 3.0 6.2 -0.4 43.5 47.4 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.9 7.9 0.3 50.7 52.1 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.2 6.4 0.5 52.9 53.4 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.1 9.1 0.1 47.4 51.4 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.2 7.1 0.8 55.4 55.3 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 8.7 0.5 53.2 53.7 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.9 7.8 0.7 54.9 54.9 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.0 7.9 0.5 51.5 53.4 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.2 7.8 0.7 54.8 54.6 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.6 7.1 0.7 56.0 54.5 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.3 9.0 0.7 50.5 54.5 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.2 6.8 -0.5 43.5 47.2 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.8 7.4 0.4 51.5 53.1 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.6 9.0 0.1 47.6 51.3 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.2 7.8 0.8 54.4 55.5 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.1 9.4 0.2 48.2 52.2 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.8 5.4 1.0 57.4 57.0 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.3 9.2 0.4 51.0 53.0 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.3 9.2 0.2 48.5 52.0 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.0 9.8 0.3 48.9 53.2 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.3 8.9 0.6 51.4 54.1 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.3 7.6 0.2 49.9 51.8 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.8 6.9 0.8 57.3 55.4 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.0 8.6 0.3 50.5 52.5 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 8.6 6.5 -0.4 43.6 47.6 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.0 7.0 0.9 54.6 56.0 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.5 8.9 9.2 0.2 47.3 51.9 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------