***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.8 6.2 -1.2 36.0 42.0 4.8 7.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.4 6.1 -1.3 33.8 41.3 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.6 6.6 -1.2 37.2 42.4 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 2.8 -2.1 31.5 36.0 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.9 5.4 4.8 -1.1 41.5 43.8 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.5 3.8 -0.7 48.1 46.6 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.1 6.1 -1.2 34.2 41.3 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -1.8 4.5 -0.4 50.2 48.8 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.5 6.3 5.7 -0.9 45.3 45.7 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 6.8 5.0 -0.6 48.8 47.9 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.5 5.0 -0.9 44.9 45.3 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.4 5.1 -0.5 48.8 47.5 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.2 4.7 -0.3 49.8 48.5 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.3 6.5 5.9 -1.0 42.1 45.0 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 3.9 3.0 -2.5 28.0 33.0 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.7 6.7 4.6 -0.8 44.3 45.4 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.0 6.2 -1.2 35.4 41.9 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.3 5.2 -0.3 50.8 49.5 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.0 6.3 -1.3 34.7 41.5 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.1 3.6 0.2 54.5 53.5 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.8 5.9 6.1 -1.1 40.5 43.7 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.4 6.3 -1.2 35.6 41.9 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.7 5.1 6.6 -1.2 36.0 42.3 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.4 5.9 -0.9 44.0 45.7 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.6 4.5 -1.3 37.1 41.6 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.7 4.7 -0.1 52.5 50.4 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.9 5.7 -1.1 37.8 42.5 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.8 3.8 2.9 -2.2 31.2 35.6 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.3 4.7 -0.1 52.3 51.0 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.3 6.1 -1.3 34.1 41.2 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------