***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 2.5 1.9 3.8 -3.5 20.6 24.5 2.9 6.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 1.7 1.6 4.2 -3.2 22.6 26.8 2.4 4.3 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.9 2.3 4.2 -3.6 20.8 25.2 3.1 4.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 -4.5 -6.1 -1.1 -5.6 12.6 17.1 -2.6 -1.7 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 2.2 2.1 2.0 -4.1 21.1 23.7 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.9 1.7 2.1 -2.5 26.9 31.3 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 1.5 1.4 4.4 -2.8 24.0 28.2 1.9 3.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -5.6 -5.7 2.4 -2.7 26.5 30.2 -4.5 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 2.2 1.9 3.2 -3.7 22.3 25.5 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 2.9 2.6 2.7 -3.2 24.6 28.6 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 2.9 2.8 2.7 -3.6 22.2 26.3 3.4 5.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.9 -2.7 26.1 29.7 3.1 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.1 3.8 -2.0 30.9 34.0 3.1 6.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.3 4.0 -3.2 24.0 29.4 2.8 5.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 1.1 -1.0 -0.2 -6.0 10.9 16.3 3.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.1 2.8 2.4 -3.3 23.8 27.8 3.4 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 1.7 1.4 4.2 -2.8 23.0 28.5 2.0 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.7 2.6 3.2 -2.5 28.3 33.5 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 1.4 1.6 4.2 -3.3 22.5 26.7 2.1 4.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.6 1.0 2.5 -1.2 37.0 40.6 0.6 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 1.9 2.1 3.7 -3.8 21.6 24.7 3.3 5.2 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.7 4.3 -3.0 22.7 28.3 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.9 4.4 -3.3 23.0 27.3 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 2.4 2.6 4.0 -3.2 24.4 29.2 3.3 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.2 -3.9 19.9 23.3 2.7 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.4 3.4 3.3 -1.4 33.4 35.7 3.4 5.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 2.1 1.8 3.7 -3.1 22.1 26.4 2.2 5.0 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.8 -0.2 -0.6 -5.8 12.4 17.3 3.9 5.2 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -1.2 -0.7 3.2 -1.8 32.6 37.8 -0.7 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.3 4.1 -3.3 22.0 26.1 1.8 4.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------