***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 2.4 1.7 1.6 -4.8 16.6 19.9 4.3 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 1.9 1.2 1.7 -4.9 16.5 19.9 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 2.5 1.9 1.5 -5.5 15.6 19.2 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -3.9 -4.3 -3.6 -7.2 13.3 14.5 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 2.7 2.2 -0.7 -6.0 15.6 17.3 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 3.3 2.9 -1.1 -4.9 18.8 20.5 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.8 1.7 -4.6 16.9 20.3 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 -3.4 -3.7 -1.0 -5.4 16.5 19.6 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 3.1 2.9 0.6 -5.7 16.5 18.6 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 2.4 1.8 -0.7 -6.0 15.8 18.4 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 2.7 2.0 -0.4 -6.2 15.3 17.3 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 3.6 3.4 -0.4 -5.4 16.4 19.3 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 3.9 4.8 0.6 -4.9 17.9 20.8 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 3.3 2.9 0.4 -6.4 16.5 18.6 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 0.8 0.4 -1.6 -6.7 13.6 16.5 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 4.1 3.5 -0.9 -5.9 15.4 17.8 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 1.5 1.1 1.4 -4.8 19.6 21.2 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 2.0 1.3 -0.9 -5.7 16.5 19.4 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 1.7 0.8 1.7 -5.1 16.0 19.8 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 0.1 0.3 -0.9 -4.0 22.4 24.7 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 3.1 2.5 1.2 -5.8 15.8 18.2 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 1.2 2.0 1.6 -5.0 19.5 21.2 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 2.3 1.6 1.6 -5.2 15.8 19.8 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 3.2 2.7 0.5 -6.1 15.9 18.3 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 87 13 0 100 1.7 1.4 0.2 -5.3 17.5 19.1 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 4.5 5.1 0.8 -3.3 24.7 26.0 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 3.1 3.0 1.5 -4.5 18.1 20.8 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 1.0 0.1 -2.9 -7.3 13.0 15.0 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -5.0 18.2 21.5 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 2.1 1.4 1.7 -4.8 15.9 19.8 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------