***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 -2.8 -1.5 -2.5 -1.3 30.3 34.4 -1.4 -0.3 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 -1.6 26.6 31.2 -2.6 -1.4 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -1.1 -2.7 -1.6 26.4 31.7 -0.6 0.7 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -7.9 -7.5 -6.2 -2.4 24.1 25.8 -7.0 -4.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -3.0 -2.6 -5.0 -1.7 28.9 32.0 -2.4 -2.0 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -3.5 -3.6 -6.8 -1.3 32.7 35.3 -3.6 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -2.8 -1.7 26.6 31.0 -2.1 -0.8 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -9.4 -8.8 -6.5 -1.3 34.2 36.9 -8.9 -8.1 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 -2.5 -1.7 -4.5 -1.3 31.6 34.9 -1.7 -0.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -2.7 -1.7 -6.0 -1.4 31.0 34.9 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -2.9 -2.0 -5.7 -1.7 29.2 32.5 -1.9 -1.2 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -3.1 -5.9 -1.3 32.9 36.2 -3.1 -2.4 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -2.7 -6.1 -1.3 30.8 35.2 -2.5 -1.6 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -2.8 -2.1 -4.8 -1.6 28.0 33.0 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 -3.3 -3.5 -5.3 -2.4 21.9 25.9 -2.2 -0.8 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -6.2 -1.8 27.3 31.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 -3.7 -2.7 -3.0 -1.9 25.4 29.4 -2.6 -1.0 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 -4.4 -3.7 -6.5 -1.5 31.2 35.0 -3.7 -3.4 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -1.6 26.2 31.4 -2.4 -1.2 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -8.2 -6.8 -7.1 -0.7 40.5 42.9 -7.4 -6.0 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 -2.8 -2.3 -3.3 -1.4 28.7 33.3 -1.9 -1.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -3.9 -3.2 -3.1 -1.8 25.0 29.8 -2.7 -1.4 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -3.6 -2.8 -3.0 -1.5 26.2 32.3 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -3.4 -2.6 -4.9 -1.6 27.0 32.6 -2.0 -1.4 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -3.7 -1.4 31.7 34.3 -2.1 -1.4 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.9 -5.4 -0.5 39.0 43.1 -2.2 -1.8 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 -2.9 -1.3 31.0 35.2 -2.0 -1.0 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 -4.6 -4.7 -6.1 -2.6 22.6 25.2 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -6.0 -5.1 -6.8 -1.1 36.2 39.1 -5.3 -4.3 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -3.2 -2.7 -2.6 -1.5 27.3 32.1 -1.9 -0.8 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------