***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 1.7 0.9 -0.3 -0.1 47.2 49.4 -1.0 1.1 2.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 44.0 47.6 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.6 -0.3 -0.1 43.8 49.5 0.5 1.9 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -2.8 -4.6 -3.7 -0.6 38.2 46.2 -5.1 -3.7 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -1.1 -3.0 -0.1 41.1 49.6 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.9 -4.9 0.1 47.1 50.9 -2.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -2.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 44.5 48.0 -1.3 0.0 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -5.4 -6.4 -4.7 0.1 44.4 51.6 -7.6 -5.9 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.0 -2.3 0.0 43.2 51.4 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 0.8 -0.3 -4.0 0.0 42.7 51.1 -0.8 0.2 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 0.5 -0.5 -3.7 -0.1 41.6 49.9 -1.2 0.0 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -1.3 -4.0 0.3 45.3 52.3 -1.9 -1.1 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -0.2 -4.2 0.3 46.8 52.3 -1.4 0.2 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.2 -2.2 0.1 45.1 51.7 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -1.9 -1.0 -2.8 -0.8 35.3 45.6 -1.1 0.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.1 -0.1 -4.1 0.0 43.0 50.2 -0.9 0.4 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 -2.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 42.4 46.7 -1.3 0.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -0.9 -1.7 -4.5 0.1 44.1 52.4 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -1.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 43.4 48.0 -1.1 0.2 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -8.0 -4.1 -5.8 0.4 51.5 54.0 -6.6 -4.3 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.5 -1.1 0.0 45.0 51.0 -0.9 -0.3 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 41.6 46.9 -1.4 -0.1 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 43.9 49.2 -1.7 -0.4 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.5 -2.6 0.0 42.9 51.5 -1.2 -0.1 1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 0.1 -0.8 -1.8 -0.1 44.0 49.5 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -1.9 -0.3 -4.2 0.5 48.8 53.5 -1.5 -0.3 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 47.0 49.7 -1.3 -0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 37.3 46.0 -3.0 -0.8 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -2.0 -4.9 0.2 47.1 53.2 -3.7 -1.7 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 44.7 48.4 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------