***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 -2.6 -1.3 30.8 39.7 -1.8 -0.8 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 -3.4 -3.7 -2.9 -1.7 25.9 36.9 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -1.5 -2.6 -1.4 28.4 39.1 -0.5 0.2 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -7.8 -7.8 -5.8 -1.8 30.6 36.2 -7.5 -5.8 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -2.3 -4.9 -1.3 34.4 41.4 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -2.3 -6.3 -0.8 38.1 44.0 -2.5 -2.1 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -3.7 -3.1 -2.9 -1.7 25.7 37.0 -2.3 -1.4 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -10.6 -8.1 -6.3 -0.8 38.5 44.4 -9.7 -7.2 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -2.7 -1.9 -4.4 -1.1 35.1 43.3 -2.0 -0.7 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -2.4 -1.1 -5.8 -1.0 36.8 43.5 -1.4 -0.5 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -1.7 -5.6 -1.2 34.6 42.0 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -2.2 -5.7 -0.9 36.2 44.6 -2.4 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -3.3 -1.6 -5.8 -0.8 38.1 44.8 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -2.3 -2.2 -4.5 -1.2 33.3 42.5 -2.2 -1.1 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -3.1 -5.2 -2.2 23.6 32.9 -2.6 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 -2.3 -0.6 -5.9 -1.1 35.6 42.1 -1.0 0.0 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -3.4 -2.9 -1.9 26.1 35.9 -2.9 -1.8 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -3.4 -6.2 -0.8 38.7 45.8 -4.1 -3.1 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -3.9 -2.9 -1.6 25.6 37.1 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -8.6 -5.3 -7.0 -0.2 47.4 48.8 -6.5 -5.1 -3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -2.8 -2.0 -3.3 -1.3 31.3 41.1 -1.8 -1.1 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -3.8 -4.3 -3.2 -1.9 24.8 35.9 -3.5 -1.9 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 -3.6 -3.7 -3.1 -1.5 26.0 38.2 -2.8 -1.8 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -2.5 -4.7 -1.1 33.0 42.7 -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -2.1 -4.0 -1.4 33.8 40.1 -2.1 -0.7 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -0.3 -1.2 -5.5 -0.3 39.1 47.6 -1.7 -0.7 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -3.7 -1.8 -3.1 -1.3 33.2 40.6 -1.8 -1.0 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -4.5 -3.7 -5.7 -1.9 29.0 35.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -6.2 -4.9 -6.4 -0.5 43.2 47.2 -6.5 -3.9 -2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -3.1 -3.2 -2.8 -1.6 27.2 37.7 -2.6 -1.3 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------