***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 -4.0 -4.1 -3.5 -2.4 21.9 29.3 -3.4 -1.4 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 -5.1 -5.4 -3.8 -2.6 22.7 27.4 -4.6 -2.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 -3.4 -2.9 -3.7 -2.7 21.1 26.7 -2.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 -10.1 -11.0 -7.6 -4.0 15.6 20.5 -9.2 -5.9 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -6.0 -6.6 -6.0 -3.0 20.5 26.1 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -6.4 -6.4 -7.9 -2.6 21.9 29.6 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -4.5 -5.1 -3.8 -2.6 23.2 28.0 -4.6 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -12.0 -13.0 -7.3 -2.4 23.2 31.9 -12.3 -8.5 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 -5.1 -5.1 -5.6 -2.6 22.7 28.3 -3.9 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -6.9 -2.6 22.5 30.1 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 -5.1 -5.6 -6.8 -3.1 20.1 26.5 -3.6 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 -5.9 -6.4 -6.8 -2.6 22.8 30.4 -5.6 -3.1 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -4.8 -5.4 -7.0 -2.6 21.7 29.4 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -5.9 -2.9 22.1 28.6 -3.5 -2.2 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 -5.0 -6.0 -6.9 -4.2 13.3 20.0 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 -4.3 -5.2 -7.4 -3.3 18.9 25.8 -3.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -2.8 23.0 27.4 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 -6.8 -7.4 -7.3 -2.6 22.4 31.1 -5.3 -4.1 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 -5.1 -5.0 -3.8 -2.6 22.2 26.9 -4.5 -3.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 -10.1 -10.5 -7.4 -1.5 29.9 39.7 -10.2 -7.7 -5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 -5.4 -5.1 -4.4 -2.7 22.0 27.6 -4.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 -4.9 -5.0 -4.1 -2.9 20.6 26.3 -4.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 -5.2 -4.9 -4.0 -2.5 22.4 27.3 -4.1 -3.6 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 -5.7 -5.0 -5.9 -2.9 21.9 27.6 -3.9 -3.5 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 -5.1 -5.4 -4.5 -2.5 22.0 28.9 -3.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 -4.8 -4.4 -5.8 -1.2 30.2 39.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -3.8 -2.3 23.8 30.6 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 -6.2 -7.0 -7.7 -4.4 13.6 19.5 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -7.9 -9.2 -7.4 -2.1 25.7 35.7 -8.7 -5.3 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 -5.0 -4.9 -3.6 -2.5 22.9 27.7 -4.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------