***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -2.7 -3.8 -1.4 29.9 33.3 -2.7 -1.3 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 -4.2 -4.5 -4.2 -2.0 22.1 29.1 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -1.9 -4.1 -2.0 28.0 30.5 -1.7 0.4 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -8.4 -9.3 -7.5 -3.4 21.1 25.0 -6.6 -4.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 -4.2 -4.4 -5.9 -2.4 26.2 29.1 -3.5 -2.0 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -4.7 -5.0 -8.2 -2.0 27.6 31.6 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 -4.3 -4.0 -4.3 -2.1 22.5 28.2 -3.1 -1.5 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -8.8 -8.4 -7.6 -1.9 28.4 33.2 -8.1 -6.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -3.4 -3.1 -5.6 -1.5 29.4 32.8 -2.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 -3.3 -3.8 -7.2 -2.1 27.0 31.3 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 -4.0 -4.5 -6.7 -2.3 25.0 29.1 -3.3 -1.9 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 -5.0 -4.2 -7.0 -2.0 27.4 31.5 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 -4.4 -4.6 -7.3 -2.3 24.8 28.4 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -3.1 -6.6 -2.5 23.7 29.8 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 -3.3 -4.1 -6.1 -2.5 22.5 28.9 -3.1 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 -3.6 -3.6 -7.5 -2.7 24.6 27.5 -3.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 -4.1 -4.7 -4.8 -2.5 21.4 27.2 -3.5 -1.1 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 -5.2 -5.5 -8.1 -2.7 22.8 29.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 -4.1 -4.1 -4.2 -1.8 23.5 29.9 -3.5 -1.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -5.5 -8.2 -8.1 -1.5 32.0 37.4 -8.1 -6.2 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -3.7 -3.8 -4.6 -1.8 27.4 31.1 -3.1 -2.0 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -4.5 -2.2 22.7 28.6 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 -3.8 -3.9 -4.4 -1.6 27.0 31.3 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -6.4 -2.6 23.0 28.5 -3.5 -2.1 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 -4.3 -3.5 -4.5 -1.6 29.2 33.0 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -3.4 -6.1 -1.0 30.3 36.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -4.0 -1.5 29.9 33.6 -3.5 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 -4.9 -5.8 -7.3 -3.3 21.2 25.3 -4.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -5.4 -5.9 -8.5 -2.0 29.1 34.0 -5.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -4.2 -4.0 -3.9 -1.7 25.2 30.4 -3.0 -1.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------