***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.7 112.9 66.3 52.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.4 11.1 112.3 61.0 52.1 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.5 12.5 10.5 106.5 61.0 52.1 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.9 11.1 96.8 56.4 50.0 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.9 10.8 99.0 59.8 50.1 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.3 10.3 87.0 53.9 46.9 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 13.7 11.2 113.4 63.8 52.4 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 18.2 11.7 96.6 59.1 50.5 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.8 10.7 100.3 62.1 50.8 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.5 11.5 97.8 59.4 51.0 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.8 10.0 94.3 59.1 49.8 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.6 9.8 92.0 57.7 49.3 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.8 10.4 90.7 54.4 47.6 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.7 24.3 12.6 107.1 62.9 53.4 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.7 12.4 10.1 87.1 55.8 49.0 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.3 10.1 92.4 55.9 48.7 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.5 13.0 11.0 120.2 65.4 53.0 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.0 13.3 104.2 62.3 53.3 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.0 11.0 110.8 60.3 52.2 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 12.7 17.7 114.4 67.5 53.8 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.8 14.3 10.6 104.1 63.3 51.9 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.4 10.9 116.2 62.9 53.5 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.2 11.0 108.8 62.3 52.3 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.7 11.8 11.8 102.9 60.6 52.9 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.2 13.1 12.6 111.8 61.7 53.5 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.8 11.1 92.1 53.1 47.1 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.9 12.2 115.1 64.4 53.8 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.6 8.1 10.0 88.6 55.2 48.6 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 18.2 15.1 109.7 65.8 53.8 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.1 11.0 110.7 59.6 52.1 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------