***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 97.4 61.3 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.3 12.0 115.6 69.1 56.3 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.5 10.7 96.0 59.1 50.4 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.3 12.1 92.5 55.6 48.0 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.2 11.1 86.2 52.0 46.9 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.0 12.8 92.6 54.3 47.7 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.9 11.7 114.3 69.1 56.5 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 18.9 12.3 91.4 55.8 49.4 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 4.8 10.5 81.8 50.7 46.1 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.5 11.6 85.4 52.0 46.8 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.3 8.0 10.7 89.0 54.4 48.3 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.7 11.0 93.2 57.7 50.0 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.2 12.1 93.4 51.0 48.9 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.0 12.7 93.4 56.1 50.1 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 7.4 4.6 12.8 102.8 60.5 50.5 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.1 11.7 93.4 56.5 49.3 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.1 11.5 117.2 68.7 57.4 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.8 5.2 13.2 86.8 50.5 47.0 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.5 11.9 112.0 68.9 55.3 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 9.4 17.8 97.0 56.0 50.8 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.9 5.0 10.2 84.8 53.3 46.3 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 11.1 10.4 11.9 115.7 68.7 57.9 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 5.3 7.1 11.8 103.8 65.1 53.3 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.2 6.0 11.7 87.0 51.3 47.7 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.5 12.3 95.9 58.3 49.9 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.8 12.8 99.7 57.0 52.0 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.5 11.8 100.3 62.3 51.6 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.4 12.2 96.0 58.8 48.8 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 13.2 15.0 91.7 54.1 49.0 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.6 11.7 111.9 68.4 55.2 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------