***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 89.7 51.4 45.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.5 10.3 94.9 56.2 48.8 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 5.2 10.4 93.5 55.9 46.9 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.5 11.2 84.2 55.2 46.4 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.8 12.1 92.5 55.5 48.7 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.7 5.8 10.6 65.7 47.9 40.6 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.4 3.6 10.4 97.4 58.5 49.5 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 20.0 18.6 13.2 84.4 50.0 45.6 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.4 12.2 94.8 55.2 48.3 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 11.4 13.1 89.3 51.4 46.6 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.1 11.3 85.9 52.9 46.9 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.5 8.9 11.0 79.3 50.7 44.7 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.8 9.9 10.8 73.2 50.4 43.6 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.7 8.8 13.1 90.8 49.0 46.1 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 8.0 8.3 11.7 87.7 57.0 50.3 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.0 7.5 11.0 79.1 51.7 45.7 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.2 3.7 9.9 96.8 57.7 49.9 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.0 15.3 92.5 50.1 47.6 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.3 10.3 92.3 54.1 47.9 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.3 19.9 95.7 52.6 49.4 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.6 11.5 98.6 59.3 49.2 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.4 10.0 90.5 55.6 48.6 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.8 4.3 10.7 90.3 50.9 47.0 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.2 13.0 93.5 51.3 47.2 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 7.2 12.0 94.6 54.6 48.4 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.5 7.7 11.1 71.4 46.1 42.6 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.5 6.0 11.0 91.8 51.4 46.8 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 7.0 6.7 11.1 82.0 54.0 47.8 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.7 16.3 17.3 94.2 50.1 48.2 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.3 10.1 93.0 55.5 47.7 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------