***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 143.5 76.4 67.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 10.6 19.3 10.8 163.2 79.3 71.9 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 9.1 19.7 14.2 174.7 82.9 74.6 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 20.1 24.9 20.7 202.9 86.0 80.1 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 15.6 21.3 20.1 199.8 87.0 80.5 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 10.5 13.4 18.6 170.9 83.6 77.0 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 7.3 9.0 9.3 138.8 72.2 66.2 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 20.5 25.6 18.7 175.1 83.4 75.2 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 11.2 15.6 18.0 179.8 84.2 76.8 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 13.6 18.9 19.0 181.6 84.6 77.2 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 12.6 25.4 19.2 196.3 86.0 79.6 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 13.1 19.9 17.8 175.1 83.4 75.6 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 12.6 17.9 19.3 177.6 85.2 78.2 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 18.0 24.5 16.3 174.0 84.4 75.7 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 14.0 31.2 22.8 244.7 90.4 84.0 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 11.1 15.7 19.4 189.5 85.5 80.0 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 10.4 12.7 8.8 138.5 74.3 66.9 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.8 19.6 17.7 166.0 80.8 73.8 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 12.2 18.2 12.2 175.5 82.1 74.2 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 9.9 11.1 17.8 144.4 75.5 68.2 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 11.7 13.8 16.4 176.2 82.4 75.5 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.4 15.4 10.8 153.3 79.1 69.7 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 13.2 24.0 14.0 182.7 84.8 75.4 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 18.6 22.7 17.0 180.5 83.1 76.8 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 10.8 19.8 16.6 168.9 83.5 73.2 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.5 12.5 18.2 163.9 79.0 72.3 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 12.1 11.5 12.4 136.9 75.1 65.7 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 16.3 22.2 21.6 217.6 87.3 82.1 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 22.0 27.7 17.1 153.6 79.4 71.2 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.5 12.9 11.4 161.4 77.9 71.4 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------