***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 43.2 108.8 63.3 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 34.4 41.9 44.1 117.2 68.1 59.2 24.4 27.8 38.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.7 46.5 45.9 113.7 65.6 58.1 30.3 39.3 46.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 51.4 58.7 55.1 114.7 64.8 58.7 29.2 46.6 61.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 43.8 52.0 54.1 115.2 64.8 59.6 31.0 40.5 52.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 40.2 37.0 52.3 99.2 52.1 50.7 23.2 35.3 46.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 32.2 34.5 42.6 113.7 66.5 57.6 20.6 27.0 33.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 71.7 73.6 55.9 107.9 58.0 55.2 57.2 66.3 83.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 39.6 40.0 51.4 110.8 62.6 56.9 27.5 35.5 42.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 45.3 47.9 55.2 109.4 59.7 55.9 35.6 41.3 49.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 36.9 41.2 51.3 112.4 62.2 58.3 28.7 33.0 42.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 41.7 39.3 49.6 106.7 58.4 55.3 33.6 37.6 45.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 46.9 48.6 52.6 105.1 58.2 54.7 29.4 43.2 51.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 54.5 60.5 54.6 111.2 63.8 57.4 43.6 49.8 64.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 43.2 48.7 57.3 123.1 67.7 62.7 24.5 38.3 45.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 38.9 43.3 52.1 109.7 60.9 57.0 29.2 35.5 46.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 31.7 42.3 41.2 115.8 66.6 58.9 22.8 26.3 41.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 41.9 46.3 59.5 108.0 61.2 54.9 30.7 38.1 50.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 41.0 42.8 45.3 117.5 69.2 59.7 25.9 36.8 40.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 52.2 46.2 73.2 109.4 58.3 55.4 30.4 45.5 59.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 43.6 45.5 48.7 112.8 62.7 57.9 26.6 37.5 52.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 36.8 44.2 43.5 115.5 67.3 59.8 26.6 33.0 43.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 36.4 39.0 47.5 115.9 68.1 59.2 26.0 34.3 37.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 50.7 52.2 53.5 111.0 62.6 57.0 40.3 48.0 55.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 45.1 55.5 53.5 114.9 63.8 58.8 28.6 38.1 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 37.3 39.8 53.2 103.2 57.6 52.8 30.1 34.8 41.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 38.0 45.1 47.4 109.2 62.0 55.4 23.2 30.9 52.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 38.3 41.0 54.9 115.6 64.4 59.2 28.7 34.2 43.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 75.7 79.3 64.5 108.3 60.1 55.4 57.1 71.8 81.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.4 41.8 44.1 115.3 67.8 58.4 23.4 30.8 40.4 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------