***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.2 -5.1 6.7 10.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 2.2 0.7 1.4 -5.7 7.1 9.5 5.0 6.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 2.9 1.7 2.3 -5.2 7.0 10.6 5.8 7.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -3.0 -4.3 0.2 -5.1 7.8 12.0 -0.3 0.9 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 3.7 2.4 1.1 -4.8 9.0 12.1 6.0 7.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 3.6 3.2 0.2 -4.0 10.6 14.1 5.5 6.6 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 2.1 0.1 1.5 -5.5 7.1 9.6 4.6 6.5 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 -3.3 -4.1 0.7 -4.1 9.0 13.3 -2.6 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 3.8 3.6 2.0 -4.6 10.8 13.0 6.5 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 3.9 3.1 1.3 -4.4 10.2 13.2 6.6 7.3 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 3.8 3.1 1.3 -4.6 9.0 12.3 6.4 7.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 3.8 3.1 1.3 -4.3 7.8 12.6 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 3.9 3.6 1.0 -4.2 6.8 12.6 6.5 8.0 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 3.3 2.3 2.2 -4.6 8.0 12.3 6.4 8.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 1.9 0.9 0.4 -5.2 8.6 12.7 4.5 6.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 4.4 3.8 1.0 -4.6 8.2 12.3 6.9 8.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 2.3 0.8 1.5 -5.2 8.2 11.4 4.4 6.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 3.7 2.8 1.0 -4.1 9.4 13.7 5.7 6.7 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 1.9 0.3 1.7 -5.6 7.1 9.8 4.9 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 0.8 -0.1 -0.7 -3.5 9.5 14.2 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 3.5 2.7 2.3 -4.8 9.1 12.2 6.1 7.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 2.6 0.9 1.9 -5.1 8.2 12.3 4.8 6.5 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 2.5 0.6 2.2 -5.3 7.3 10.5 5.3 7.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 3.9 2.8 2.0 -4.5 8.4 12.5 6.3 7.7 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 3.2 2.0 1.2 -4.6 8.1 12.3 5.0 6.6 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 4.7 4.0 1.1 -3.8 8.2 13.7 6.2 7.3 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 2.7 2.1 1.7 -4.8 7.6 11.3 5.9 7.2 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 2.6 1.3 0.4 -5.2 7.9 11.9 4.9 6.9 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -3.8 9.1 14.0 2.1 3.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 2.1 0.6 1.5 -5.7 6.8 9.2 4.9 6.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------