***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 -0.7 42.6 44.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.6 7.4 7.5 -0.8 41.3 44.3 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.1 9.5 8.1 -0.7 43.3 45.6 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 0.2 1.2 5.4 -1.2 36.3 41.2 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 6.9 8.6 6.4 -0.9 40.2 43.7 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.2 7.7 4.2 -1.2 35.1 41.0 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.3 7.5 7.3 -0.9 40.8 43.9 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -1.3 -0.6 5.4 -0.7 41.6 44.8 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.0 9.8 7.3 -0.5 43.2 46.5 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.9 6.2 -0.6 43.3 45.7 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 8.1 8.9 6.4 -0.7 40.5 44.5 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.5 9.0 6.2 -0.7 41.1 45.1 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 8.0 9.0 5.4 -1.0 38.5 43.0 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.0 10.6 7.2 -0.6 45.4 45.7 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.5 7.8 5.4 -1.2 38.3 41.6 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 8.4 9.3 5.7 -1.0 39.1 42.6 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.1 6.5 7.2 -0.8 41.2 45.0 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.9 9.7 5.5 -0.7 44.7 45.4 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 5.2 7.3 7.8 -0.8 42.1 44.7 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.9 3.0 -0.9 41.9 44.0 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.9 7.8 -0.5 43.7 46.1 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.7 7.3 7.6 -0.7 42.5 45.4 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 6.0 9.3 8.0 -0.7 43.6 45.2 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.4 10.6 7.1 -0.6 45.3 45.9 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.9 7.5 6.2 -0.8 42.0 44.1 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 7.4 9.7 5.4 -0.8 39.1 43.9 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.0 9.0 6.9 -0.8 41.9 44.3 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.8 8.3 5.5 -1.3 36.0 40.9 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.4 5.2 4.4 -0.8 44.4 44.7 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 6.2 8.4 7.7 -0.8 41.4 44.3 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------