***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.3 -2.1 33.8 35.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.8 4.3 5.0 -2.2 30.4 35.1 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.1 5.5 5.6 -2.0 33.5 36.4 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.2 -1.7 3.1 -2.4 31.6 33.7 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.4 4.8 4.1 -2.0 36.1 36.7 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.8 5.1 2.6 -1.6 40.6 40.0 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.0 4.0 5.0 -2.1 31.3 35.7 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -2.6 3.6 -1.2 41.8 41.8 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.8 4.9 -1.7 38.7 38.9 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 5.9 4.2 -1.3 40.9 41.1 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 5.5 4.2 -1.8 39.4 38.5 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.4 5.6 4.2 -1.4 41.1 40.7 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.4 6.1 3.6 -1.5 39.7 40.5 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.5 5.5 -1.2 42.0 42.6 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.3 3.9 2.9 -2.7 30.0 32.2 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 6.4 3.7 -1.8 39.6 38.1 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.8 5.0 -1.9 32.2 37.2 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 5.9 4.0 -0.9 41.2 43.7 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.8 5.3 -2.2 30.7 35.6 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.6 2.4 2.1 -0.5 41.7 46.1 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.5 5.3 -1.9 36.2 37.5 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.2 4.2 5.3 -1.8 34.0 38.3 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.4 5.1 5.6 -1.9 32.8 37.4 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.2 5.2 -1.3 40.0 41.3 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.4 3.9 -2.0 35.6 35.8 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.0 6.7 3.7 -1.2 39.4 41.6 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.3 4.7 -2.0 35.9 36.2 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.7 3.8 3.1 -2.6 32.2 33.3 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.0 2.6 3.3 -0.6 42.4 45.6 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.0 3.9 5.2 -2.2 30.1 34.8 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------