***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.2 -4.1 18.7 22.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.4 -4.8 14.6 18.1 2.4 4.3 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 2.0 2.3 2.4 -4.1 20.4 22.8 3.1 4.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -3.7 0.8 -3.7 25.7 27.0 -2.6 -1.7 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.8 2.8 1.7 -3.4 30.5 28.4 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.6 2.5 0.9 -2.5 32.9 33.0 2.5 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 1.2 0.8 1.5 -4.6 14.8 18.2 1.9 3.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.9 -5.1 1.6 -2.5 29.7 32.3 -4.5 -2.6 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.1 3.2 2.4 -3.3 29.7 28.7 3.3 5.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.4 3.3 2.0 -2.7 29.4 31.6 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.8 3.3 2.0 -3.0 31.2 30.3 3.4 5.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.0 2.1 -2.8 30.5 30.7 3.1 5.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.8 3.1 1.6 -2.7 31.4 30.7 3.1 6.2 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.3 2.7 2.7 -3.1 27.9 30.0 2.8 5.7 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.1 3.1 0.7 -3.9 24.4 25.9 3.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.4 3.3 1.6 -3.0 31.8 30.1 3.4 6.6 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 1.3 1.2 1.4 -4.5 17.0 19.4 2.0 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 2.7 1.9 -2.3 29.0 33.5 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 1.2 0.8 1.7 -4.7 16.0 19.4 2.1 4.0 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.4 0.3 -1.8 30.8 35.1 0.6 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.4 2.9 2.5 -3.6 27.6 26.4 3.3 5.2 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 1.9 1.5 1.8 -4.3 19.0 21.9 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 1.9 1.6 2.4 -4.2 20.0 22.5 2.3 4.3 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.8 2.7 2.6 -3.0 27.2 29.8 3.3 4.7 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.3 2.1 1.4 -3.5 23.9 26.1 2.7 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.3 3.3 1.6 -2.6 30.3 30.0 3.4 5.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.4 1.6 1.8 -3.7 20.6 23.7 2.2 5.0 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.6 0.9 -3.9 26.5 27.0 3.9 5.2 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -0.9 -0.9 1.4 -2.0 29.4 35.1 -0.7 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 1.2 0.7 1.7 -4.7 14.9 18.5 1.8 4.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------