***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -6.7 -13.4 0.0 0.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 1.2 -4.1 -8.5 -15.1 0.0 0.9 3.8 6.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 1.9 -1.6 -6.8 -13.9 0.0 0.2 5.1 7.7 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -4.0 -9.3 -8.4 -12.9 0.0 1.2 -1.1 1.4 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 2.3 -1.7 -7.5 -13.0 0.0 0.6 5.9 7.3 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -10.9 0.0 1.7 4.7 6.7 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 0.6 -5.7 -8.0 -14.5 0.0 1.0 3.4 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -8.8 -7.6 -12.2 0.0 0.9 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 2.7 -0.6 -6.6 -13.1 0.0 0.5 5.9 7.8 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 1.9 -1.0 -7.4 -12.8 0.0 0.7 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 2.3 -1.9 -7.4 -13.0 0.0 0.7 6.0 7.0 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 3.1 -1.5 -7.3 -12.5 0.0 0.8 6.0 7.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 3.5 -2.5 -6.6 -11.8 0.0 0.9 5.8 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 2.8 -2.7 -6.8 -13.7 0.0 0.6 6.2 7.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 0.6 -5.0 -7.3 -12.9 0.6 1.8 4.3 7.0 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 3.8 -2.1 -7.1 -12.4 0.0 0.8 6.5 7.3 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 0.7 -2.7 -7.6 -13.8 0.0 1.4 4.2 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 1.2 -0.8 -7.5 -12.3 0.0 0.7 5.4 6.5 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 0.8 -5.6 -8.1 -14.9 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -1.6 -4.6 -8.2 -11.0 0.0 1.1 2.3 4.0 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 2.6 -0.9 -6.3 -13.2 0.0 0.4 5.8 7.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 0.3 -2.9 -7.2 -13.7 0.0 1.3 4.7 7.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 1.7 -5.0 -7.2 -14.3 0.0 0.5 4.5 7.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 2.7 -1.1 -6.7 -13.2 0.0 0.5 6.0 7.6 10.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 0.9 -2.0 -6.9 -12.3 0.0 0.6 4.5 6.6 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 3.6 -0.6 -6.2 -10.7 0.0 1.2 5.8 6.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 2.4 -3.8 -6.7 -12.7 0.0 0.4 5.4 6.8 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 0.9 -3.4 -8.0 -13.2 0.0 1.4 4.5 7.5 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -0.8 -4.6 -7.8 -11.7 0.0 0.8 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 1.5 -5.3 -8.4 -15.1 0.0 0.4 3.9 7.0 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------