***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 29.6 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 26.7 40.7 -1.3 -0.2 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 -0.3 0.1 -1.2 -1.1 28.7 40.9 0.5 1.9 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -6.8 -5.2 -3.4 -1.1 30.9 38.4 -5.1 -3.7 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -3.0 -1.8 -3.0 -1.0 32.0 40.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -3.6 -2.5 -4.8 -0.9 33.0 38.9 -2.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 28.5 41.4 -1.3 0.0 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -8.0 -7.6 -3.9 -0.8 32.9 42.7 -7.6 -5.9 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 -2.4 -0.9 30.8 42.7 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -2.1 -0.9 -3.4 -0.8 32.3 43.1 -0.8 0.2 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 -2.3 -1.4 -3.2 -1.0 31.4 40.1 -1.2 0.0 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 -3.1 -0.9 31.3 41.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 -2.8 -1.6 -3.6 -0.8 30.2 41.5 -1.4 0.2 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -0.5 -2.4 -1.0 31.4 40.7 -0.5 0.7 1.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -1.2 -3.3 -1.2 31.0 38.5 -1.1 0.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 -1.7 -1.0 -3.6 -1.0 31.1 39.4 -0.9 0.4 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 30.5 43.1 -1.3 0.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -2.3 -3.9 -0.7 34.5 43.6 -2.6 -1.4 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -1.3 -1.2 26.1 40.1 -1.1 0.2 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -8.0 -5.5 -5.1 -0.3 41.0 46.6 -6.6 -4.3 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 -2.0 -1.2 -1.6 -0.9 31.1 42.3 -0.9 -0.3 1.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 -2.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 30.5 42.4 -1.4 -0.1 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 -1.2 26.1 39.7 -1.7 -0.4 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -2.8 -1.3 -2.6 -0.9 31.1 41.7 -1.2 -0.1 1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 -2.6 -1.1 29.7 41.0 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 -3.1 -0.5 30.1 43.9 -1.5 -0.3 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -1.4 -1.8 -1.1 28.7 41.5 -1.3 -0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -3.4 -1.1 31.1 37.8 -3.0 -0.8 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -3.3 -4.5 -0.6 36.7 44.0 -3.7 -1.7 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2 -1.3 27.2 40.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------