***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -6.5 -5.3 10.2 14.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 -5.9 -8.3 -7.0 -5.8 10.1 13.7 -4.6 -2.6 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 -3.8 -5.7 -6.6 -5.2 9.6 14.3 -2.7 -0.7 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -9.7 -10.5 -7.2 -3.7 17.6 21.9 -9.2 -5.9 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 -6.1 -6.9 -6.9 -3.6 18.6 22.0 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 -6.5 -6.3 -7.4 -2.5 23.1 27.7 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 -5.1 -6.2 -7.0 -5.7 9.7 13.9 -4.6 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -12.1 -13.0 -6.9 -2.6 24.3 27.8 -12.3 -8.5 -8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 -5.3 -5.6 -6.6 -3.9 17.7 20.7 -3.9 -2.2 -0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 -4.8 -4.7 -6.8 -3.0 23.2 26.1 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 -5.2 -5.6 -6.7 -3.3 19.9 23.2 -3.6 -2.0 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 -6.3 -6.7 -6.8 -3.3 18.8 22.7 -5.6 -3.1 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 -5.2 -5.3 -7.0 -3.2 22.1 23.7 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 -5.3 -6.0 -7.1 -4.4 12.3 18.5 -3.5 -2.2 -0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 -5.0 -5.4 -7.2 -4.1 17.0 20.6 -2.8 -1.8 -0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 -4.2 -5.1 -7.0 -3.3 20.4 23.3 -3.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 -5.2 -7.2 -6.9 -5.5 10.0 14.9 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -6.7 -6.2 -6.9 -2.5 26.2 29.7 -5.3 -4.1 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 -5.6 -7.5 -7.0 -5.7 10.0 13.5 -4.5 -3.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -9.8 -10.2 -7.2 -1.3 33.9 37.5 -10.2 -7.7 -5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 -5.7 -7.1 -6.5 -4.5 12.6 17.5 -4.2 -3.0 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 -5.4 -7.8 -6.8 -5.4 11.3 15.2 -4.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 -5.7 -7.8 -7.1 -5.5 9.6 13.6 -4.1 -3.6 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 -5.9 -6.5 -6.8 -3.9 15.5 20.9 -3.9 -3.5 -1.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 -5.7 -6.4 -7.2 -4.4 13.8 18.6 -3.9 -2.7 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 -5.4 -5.3 -6.5 -3.0 23.4 24.2 -4.2 -2.7 -1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 -5.7 -7.8 -7.0 -5.0 11.8 16.4 -4.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 -6.0 -6.7 -7.1 -3.8 17.1 21.8 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -7.7 -8.8 -6.8 -1.7 30.5 34.5 -8.7 -5.3 -3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 -5.8 -6.8 -6.9 -5.7 10.0 13.6 -4.3 -2.4 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------