***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -15.6 -14.4 0.1 1.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 -5.5 -15.5 -16.1 -14.7 0.5 1.6 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -10.4 -15.4 -14.0 0.0 0.6 -1.7 0.4 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -9.7 -12.4 -15.2 -11.8 2.5 2.4 -6.6 -4.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -5.4 -11.2 -15.3 -12.2 2.2 2.1 -3.5 -2.0 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 -6.0 -12.7 -14.5 -9.3 2.6 3.2 -3.9 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 -5.6 -13.3 -16.3 -14.9 1.7 1.8 -3.1 -1.5 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -10.2 -14.4 -15.7 -11.1 1.0 1.7 -8.1 -6.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -11.8 -15.2 -12.4 1.6 1.8 -2.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -12.5 -15.6 -11.6 1.0 1.8 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -5.0 -13.1 -15.2 -11.9 1.5 1.8 -3.3 -1.9 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 -6.3 -14.8 -15.5 -11.8 1.1 1.7 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -5.1 -15.5 -15.5 -11.7 1.6 1.8 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -3.6 -11.5 -15.6 -13.1 0.7 1.2 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -4.5 -11.0 -14.0 -11.6 2.9 3.0 -3.1 -0.9 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 -4.5 -12.0 -15.5 -11.9 1.6 1.8 -3.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 -5.3 -10.9 -15.9 -14.5 2.0 2.0 -3.5 -1.1 -0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -6.3 -10.7 -15.7 -11.0 2.9 2.7 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -5.2 -18.2 -15.8 -14.3 0.0 1.3 -3.5 -1.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -9.7 -18.8 -16.1 -10.1 2.2 2.9 -8.1 -6.2 -4.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -4.7 -15.5 -15.3 -13.4 0.5 1.4 -3.1 -2.0 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -5.4 -13.8 -15.6 -14.1 1.3 1.9 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -4.9 -15.9 -15.4 -13.7 0.0 0.9 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -11.8 -15.3 -12.4 1.4 1.5 -3.5 -2.1 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -5.6 -10.4 -15.3 -13.0 2.0 1.7 -3.1 -1.6 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -4.9 -11.5 -14.9 -11.0 2.4 2.5 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -6.1 -16.0 -15.7 -13.9 1.0 1.4 -3.5 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -6.0 -11.8 -14.8 -11.9 2.7 2.7 -4.4 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -6.9 -10.5 -15.7 -10.4 2.6 2.7 -5.6 -3.7 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -5.7 -16.6 -16.0 -14.7 0.0 1.4 -3.0 -1.7 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------