***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 43.5 43.4 49.8 121.8 71.0 66.6 22.9 26.9 42.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 45.0 50.1 45.2 127.6 75.0 68.3 24.8 28.5 40.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 55.8 54.8 50.5 123.3 71.6 67.4 30.1 39.8 52.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 59.0 64.5 62.9 128.0 72.9 68.4 29.5 46.0 61.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 52.6 54.3 54.9 113.1 69.6 61.4 31.6 42.8 52.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 47.2 53.4 59.8 127.3 74.0 69.0 25.3 35.3 47.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 38.9 43.7 43.9 125.6 74.9 66.8 21.2 24.2 35.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 81.1 77.0 59.0 111.1 65.6 60.7 53.7 64.8 77.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 46.2 44.9 54.7 111.8 67.5 61.2 25.8 35.9 44.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 52.3 48.0 57.9 109.4 64.2 59.6 33.7 40.6 49.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 46.6 41.7 55.0 114.7 68.3 62.3 27.3 34.1 40.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 52.0 44.7 54.6 114.6 67.5 62.5 30.1 37.6 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 54.3 55.6 59.5 118.5 68.7 64.5 28.8 44.6 53.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 54.3 55.1 60.5 114.4 65.6 62.7 41.5 50.8 56.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 58.6 72.5 67.9 149.2 80.1 74.1 26.8 39.7 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 47.7 51.7 56.4 118.9 69.6 64.6 28.7 35.5 49.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 42.7 49.2 43.5 125.5 73.9 66.4 20.7 26.5 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 41.1 47.5 59.3 106.1 60.1 57.7 29.5 38.1 48.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 46.3 47.7 47.0 127.2 74.4 68.5 27.6 37.1 44.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 48.1 49.2 76.2 109.7 63.4 59.5 30.4 45.5 50.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 54.6 58.6 53.2 116.6 69.4 63.2 26.1 40.0 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 43.9 45.1 46.6 126.4 73.2 67.0 23.9 33.9 43.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 38.9 39.5 50.1 123.8 71.5 67.5 23.9 35.0 39.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 48.7 56.8 55.9 111.8 64.0 61.1 35.9 45.5 57.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 59.0 63.5 57.0 117.7 69.3 64.1 28.8 44.0 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 43.8 43.6 60.9 125.6 70.9 67.3 29.0 35.9 41.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 50.9 53.9 52.1 119.8 70.5 65.4 24.9 33.7 50.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 50.6 56.0 63.0 136.4 75.1 70.6 29.6 34.0 46.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 73.0 73.9 63.9 106.5 60.6 57.8 57.1 70.3 77.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 48.0 51.5 46.8 127.8 74.3 68.7 21.4 31.1 37.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------