***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.1 11.2 93.6 56.4 49.2 1.1 5.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.5 10.1 98.2 60.8 49.0 4.3 9.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.6 10.4 85.5 53.5 46.5 3.8 6.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.0 12.0 85.0 52.7 47.3 2.8 12.4 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.6 8.6 11.3 78.1 49.8 44.4 5.1 8.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.3 11.6 80.9 47.8 43.4 4.0 5.9 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.6 10.4 104.5 62.9 51.0 1.4 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.8 14.8 12.8 80.0 50.8 43.6 8.8 14.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 5.0 11.5 76.2 48.1 43.5 2.7 5.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.1 12.5 76.8 48.5 43.2 5.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.6 11.0 78.8 51.4 44.8 2.2 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.2 80.0 51.8 43.9 3.1 5.5 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.0 12.2 83.8 51.8 44.2 3.2 7.5 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 11.3 12.0 74.6 45.8 41.9 6.3 11.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.4 14.2 12.3 91.8 57.8 51.4 0.8 8.4 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.4 11.4 81.8 51.9 45.0 1.9 8.4 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.9 10.4 106.2 64.7 50.9 5.5 7.8 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 7.4 12.9 74.1 45.8 40.9 5.4 8.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.7 10.0 92.1 56.7 47.1 4.0 6.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.6 17.5 82.1 47.3 42.5 4.0 7.6 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.7 5.8 11.1 80.8 50.5 45.4 2.8 5.6 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.0 12.7 10.8 102.7 60.6 48.8 5.6 10.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.8 9.8 81.7 49.9 43.9 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 8.4 11.5 75.1 47.8 42.1 5.9 8.6 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.3 12.8 90.9 54.1 48.8 1.4 3.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.6 12.4 87.7 52.8 45.2 2.7 8.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.4 12.2 96.0 57.2 50.0 1.4 6.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.1 8.3 11.5 84.8 54.6 47.9 1.9 8.1 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 9.9 14.0 75.5 45.6 40.4 7.6 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.8 11.8 10.3 96.3 59.1 48.9 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------