***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.9 10.4 95.3 56.5 49.9 3.4 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 9.4 101.8 57.4 51.2 1.0 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.6 11.0 101.8 57.5 50.9 2.9 6.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.8 14.4 114.9 64.6 54.5 3.4 5.9 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.1 6.4 13.7 107.6 61.8 53.4 3.8 6.1 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.7 14.5 121.6 65.0 56.9 2.0 8.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.7 9.1 100.0 59.2 51.3 1.9 3.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.5 13.9 101.1 59.6 53.2 8.6 12.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.8 13.9 104.8 60.9 52.5 2.7 4.9 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.2 14.3 102.0 58.9 52.7 3.6 4.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.8 10.3 13.1 106.3 61.1 53.8 2.4 3.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.9 12.9 105.8 61.2 54.4 2.1 5.2 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.8 14.2 114.5 64.0 56.4 3.1 7.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.3 14.2 102.0 55.4 50.6 2.2 6.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.3 6.6 15.8 135.0 70.2 57.6 0.6 2.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.4 13.4 110.7 63.4 54.7 3.0 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.8 9.1 102.0 58.7 51.1 1.1 3.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.8 14.5 97.8 56.4 51.3 2.9 5.5 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.2 10.0 103.7 57.3 51.5 1.4 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.6 18.5 101.0 58.5 52.9 4.3 9.7 15.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.5 12.5 102.7 58.9 50.9 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.7 6.1 9.7 100.2 55.9 50.4 0.9 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.9 11.1 106.0 57.1 51.7 2.2 3.5 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.7 13.3 99.7 55.4 51.0 3.6 5.4 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.2 12.9 101.7 59.5 51.5 2.5 5.9 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.0 14.7 121.6 67.2 59.0 3.3 8.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.6 11.0 94.4 55.9 49.7 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.7 9.6 14.6 123.4 68.0 56.1 1.4 3.1 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 14.6 15.6 97.4 56.2 51.3 6.4 13.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.1 9.7 100.5 57.1 50.9 1.3 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------