***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.02.2018.-18.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.2 10.8 10.5 103.1 60.7 53.0 2.0 4.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.4 10.0 9.6 110.1 62.7 52.5 1.0 4.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.0 12.6 11.4 113.5 66.0 56.5 1.7 5.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.7 18.2 14.9 126.4 73.3 61.7 6.1 10.9 16.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.6 16.9 13.3 117.2 69.1 59.0 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.4 15.0 132.7 73.2 63.2 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.3 7.0 8.8 100.4 60.4 50.3 0.9 3.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 20.3 24.1 15.1 124.5 68.9 62.1 12.6 18.5 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.7 12.3 108.2 64.7 56.1 4.2 8.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 19.4 14.2 119.7 68.2 60.3 6.6 11.5 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 14.2 15.4 14.9 129.5 73.4 62.6 4.0 9.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.0 14.4 127.3 71.1 62.2 6.5 10.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 15.9 17.7 15.7 130.5 73.3 62.6 4.3 10.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.5 17.0 14.8 117.3 67.7 60.3 4.0 11.4 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.8 16.0 16.7 150.7 77.4 66.3 1.6 6.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.2 14.7 128.0 72.4 62.1 3.8 8.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.7 9.0 105.4 62.1 51.5 1.3 4.0 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.8 17.9 14.5 115.1 66.2 59.2 4.3 10.3 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.4 12.9 10.4 114.9 64.5 54.6 1.8 6.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.6 15.9 19.3 123.0 68.9 63.2 5.1 6.6 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.9 14.2 11.6 106.5 63.9 54.7 3.3 8.3 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.4 9.9 111.2 63.5 52.8 1.8 5.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.6 12.5 11.6 116.9 66.7 57.5 2.4 5.5 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.9 13.4 112.8 65.6 57.8 5.3 9.5 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.6 12.3 102.6 59.8 54.1 1.7 6.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.0 11.5 15.4 130.6 70.7 64.0 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.1 6.5 10.8 99.4 58.3 52.4 1.8 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.2 17.5 15.9 143.1 76.7 65.6 2.9 7.9 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.7 28.1 16.0 116.5 67.2 60.5 10.8 16.6 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.6 10.0 111.1 63.6 53.6 1.5 3.8 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------