***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9.6 16.5 17.7 225.7 88.3 83.2 0.9 4.6 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 14.4 19.8 16.1 224.9 89.0 84.0 1.6 3.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 12.9 19.9 17.7 224.3 88.3 83.0 2.0 6.4 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 18.9 22.7 21.6 201.9 86.4 79.1 3.9 8.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.0 17.9 16.6 166.2 79.9 72.8 3.0 9.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 11.2 17.7 18.7 200.0 86.7 79.1 3.2 7.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 8.6 15.4 15.5 221.0 88.4 83.6 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.7 22.4 17.3 152.8 74.8 69.8 6.1 10.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 10.4 13.7 17.0 184.4 83.7 77.1 3.1 5.7 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 11.0 14.2 16.9 158.3 76.6 71.0 4.1 6.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 11.7 13.1 15.9 157.6 77.3 70.5 4.7 7.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.5 11.4 16.0 158.8 76.2 71.2 2.3 5.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.5 13.1 17.3 155.2 76.4 71.5 4.2 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 17.4 26.0 19.5 190.6 86.0 79.7 6.5 10.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 14.1 35.5 23.1 248.1 91.1 83.9 1.6 6.3 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 10.9 12.9 17.1 169.6 79.8 74.0 3.2 7.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 12.2 16.3 14.9 204.3 85.6 80.7 3.3 6.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 12.6 16.3 17.4 158.9 78.4 71.6 2.9 6.6 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 14.9 21.1 16.6 224.0 88.7 83.8 2.7 6.6 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.7 12.8 20.9 149.5 75.8 70.5 3.4 5.3 9.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 12.2 16.0 17.9 204.2 85.9 79.8 3.4 8.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 12.2 16.7 16.3 207.3 84.7 80.8 3.4 5.9 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 15.6 20.6 17.5 219.2 87.3 83.3 0.9 5.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.8 22.8 17.7 186.6 84.9 77.5 4.2 8.0 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 13.1 18.0 19.0 196.6 85.0 79.3 3.9 6.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 11.0 12.9 18.4 175.5 78.9 76.0 1.0 4.9 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 15.1 20.7 18.2 218.0 88.2 82.6 2.8 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 12.2 21.0 21.1 215.8 87.7 80.5 1.2 4.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.7 25.9 18.4 157.1 78.5 72.0 5.7 12.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 11.5 20.6 16.7 232.3 90.6 84.8 2.1 4.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------