***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.5 5.8 5.5 -1.3 32.2 35.5 5.8 7.3 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.8 4.7 5.2 -1.7 28.9 32.1 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.4 5.8 -1.5 31.4 34.7 5.5 7.7 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -1.4 -0.4 2.7 -1.4 33.7 36.4 -0.6 0.9 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.2 4.4 -1.1 36.9 39.0 5.9 7.2 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.4 3.8 -0.3 45.9 47.2 5.2 6.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.5 5.3 -1.6 30.8 33.0 4.6 6.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -1.8 3.9 -0.8 40.2 42.2 -2.6 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 6.3 5.3 -1.1 37.0 39.5 6.1 7.9 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.5 6.6 4.4 -1.0 38.7 40.3 6.2 7.4 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.6 4.9 -0.9 39.1 41.4 6.0 8.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.2 6.3 4.7 -0.6 40.5 43.5 5.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.4 4.8 -0.3 43.3 45.8 6.0 8.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.5 4.8 -1.9 30.8 32.3 5.9 8.3 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.8 4.7 3.8 -1.2 33.6 37.7 4.7 6.5 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.1 7.2 4.6 -0.6 41.3 43.3 6.5 8.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.6 3.9 4.9 -1.9 27.7 30.6 4.3 6.1 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.0 4.2 -1.0 39.1 40.3 5.5 6.7 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.6 4.5 5.4 -1.8 28.5 32.2 4.8 6.5 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 4.1 2.6 2.6 -0.6 42.0 43.0 2.2 3.4 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.5 5.9 5.7 -1.3 34.2 37.1 5.8 7.7 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 3.9 3.9 4.9 -2.0 25.8 29.7 4.6 6.5 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.3 5.0 5.6 -1.7 29.4 32.8 5.2 7.1 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.3 5.2 -1.4 33.9 36.3 6.1 7.8 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.8 4.9 4.2 -1.3 34.1 35.8 4.8 6.5 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.7 7.1 4.4 -0.1 46.8 47.9 5.8 7.2 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.7 5.5 5.1 -1.3 33.1 35.7 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.2 3.4 -1.2 34.7 38.1 5.0 7.1 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.0 3.7 -0.8 39.7 41.7 1.5 3.7 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.9 4.7 5.4 -1.6 30.1 33.2 4.9 6.7 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------