***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.3 12.0 8.5 1.1 62.3 61.4 6.0 10.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.0 11.1 8.5 1.1 61.7 61.5 4.9 8.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.4 12.1 9.0 1.3 64.0 62.0 6.9 10.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.0 4.3 5.7 0.8 62.3 57.0 0.2 2.7 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.5 7.1 1.2 66.4 60.5 7.3 10.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 11.9 11.6 5.9 1.5 66.2 61.1 7.0 9.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 12.0 10.7 8.5 1.1 61.8 61.7 5.5 8.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 3.0 2.3 6.4 1.6 68.2 63.0 -1.1 0.6 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 14.0 13.4 7.9 1.5 68.1 61.9 7.3 11.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.9 14.1 7.1 1.6 68.8 62.8 6.7 10.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 13.9 13.5 7.3 1.4 67.3 61.9 7.2 10.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 12.7 11.9 7.1 1.6 67.8 62.9 7.6 9.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 13.3 13.0 6.6 1.6 67.4 63.0 7.7 10.4 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.6 8.2 1.6 68.2 63.0 6.5 10.5 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.8 8.9 6.0 0.4 56.2 54.2 5.0 8.4 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.9 6.9 1.4 67.5 61.7 8.4 10.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 10.9 10.7 8.5 1.1 62.3 61.8 5.0 7.5 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.0 12.9 7.2 1.8 70.2 64.1 6.8 10.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 12.4 11.7 8.8 1.2 62.6 61.8 5.5 8.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.1 4.6 1.5 68.5 63.4 3.6 5.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 13.7 12.6 8.5 1.3 66.2 61.8 7.3 10.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.3 11.6 8.6 1.0 61.0 61.1 5.3 9.2 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.1 9.2 1.4 65.9 62.6 6.9 9.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 14.5 13.8 8.3 1.7 68.7 63.4 7.2 10.6 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 12.5 11.0 6.8 1.0 63.3 59.7 6.4 8.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.5 11.8 6.3 1.4 66.2 62.7 8.3 10.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.3 10.7 7.8 1.1 62.5 60.9 7.1 9.4 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.2 10.6 5.9 0.7 61.0 56.4 6.5 8.7 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 9.4 8.4 6.4 1.8 69.5 64.4 3.4 6.4 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.3 11.0 8.5 1.1 61.6 61.4 5.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------